CAJ | 학술논문

本文运用对数平均的LMDI分解模型，选取工业SO2、工业烟（粉）尘排放量作为污染物指标，将2006—2013年，乌鲁木齐工业废气排放量影响因素分解为规模效应、结构效应、技术效应，考虑到技术效应机制的复杂性，进一步将技术效应细化为污染治理效应和清洁技术效应。研究结果表明：规模效应和结构效应增加乌鲁木齐工业废气排放，其中规模效应对工业废气排放量贡献率由2007年的119.10%增加到2013年的263.03%，结构效应对工业废气排放量的增加也起到一定的促进作用，但影响效果远低于规模效应，年贡献率均低于10%，技术效应阻碍工业废气排放的增加，贡献率由2007年的-19.86%增加到2013年的-172.50%。制造业和电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业废气排放量占工业废气排放总量的70%左右，是乌鲁木齐工业废气污染的主要行业。清洁技术效应对SO2的减排起促进作用，是阻碍工业SO2排放量增加的主要因素。污染治理效应是工业烟（粉）尘的减排主要因素，说明目前乌鲁木齐工业烟（粉）尘的减排依赖于排放后的治理。
본문운용대수평균적LMDI분해모형，선취공업SO2、공업연（분）진배방량작위오염물지표，장2006—2013년，오로목제공업폐기배방량영향인소분해위규모효응、결구효응、기술효응，고필도기술효응궤제적복잡성，진일보장기술효응세화위오염치리효응화청길기술효응。연구결과표명：규모효응화결구효응증가오로목제공업폐기배방，기중규모효응대공업폐기배방량공헌솔유2007년적119.10%증가도2013년적263.03%，결구효응대공업폐기배방량적증가야기도일정적촉진작용，단영향효과원저우규모효응，년공헌솔균저우10%，기술효응조애공업폐기배방적증가，공헌솔유2007년적-19.86%증가도2013년적-172.50%。제조업화전력、연기급수적생산화공응업폐기배방량점공업폐기배방총량적70%좌우，시오로목제공업폐기오염적주요행업。청길기술효응대SO2적감배기촉진작용，시조애공업SO2배방량증가적주요인소。오염치리효응시공업연（분）진적감배주요인소，설명목전오로목제공업연（분）진적감배의뢰우배방후적치리。
Factors affecting the emissions of industrial waste gas in Urumqi from 2006 to 2013 were decomposed into scale effect, structural effect, technical effect by the method of Loganithmic Mean weight Divisia Index (LMDI), in which SO2 and smoke (powder) dust emissions from industry were selected as pollutant indicators. Considering the complexity of the mechanism of technical effect, it was further refi ned to pollution control effect and clean technology effect. Results showed that scale effect and structural effect increased the emissions of industrial waste gas in Urumqi with the main contribution from scale effect, the contribution rate of which increased from 119.10% in 2007 to 263.03% in 2013. The structural effect also promoted the increase of industrial waste gas emissions with contribution rates lower than 10%, which was far lower than the scale effect. The technical effect stunted the increase of industrial waste gas emissions, with contribution rate changing from -19.86% in 2007 to -172.50% in 2013. Manufacturing, electricity, gas and water production supply sector industries were the major industries of waste gas pollution in Urumqi, accounting for 70% of total industrial emissions. Clean technology effect was the main factor that stunted the increase of industrial SO2 emissions by promoting SO2 emission reduction. Pollution control effect was the main factor affected the emission reduction of industrial smoke (dust), indicating that the emission reduction of industrial smoke (dust) in Urumqi depended on the governance of the emission.