工程研究-跨学科视野中的工程
工程研究-跨學科視野中的工程
공정연구-과학과시야중적공정
Journal of Engineering Studies
2015年
3期
132-140
,共9页
气候谈判集团%演化过程%演变趋势
氣候談判集糰%縯化過程%縯變趨勢
기후담판집단%연화과정%연변추세
climate negotiation groups%evolution process%evolution trend
首先对气候谈判集团的发展和演变过程进行了系统的分析,并根据不同阶段的特征,将其演化过程划分为四个阶段。接着从政治干预、科学认知和利益驱动三个方面对影响气候谈判集团成员立场的因素进行了归纳,在此基础上对欧盟、伞形集团、七十七国集团+中国的谈判立场未来演变趋势进行了分析,并得出了以下结论:1)现有的三大气候谈判集团将呈现不同的分化趋势;2)未来共同的利益驱动将是决定今后各国气候谈判立场和气候谈判集团重组的关键;3)区域和跨区域合作组织开始在气候合作领域发挥作用,对气候谈判集团的演化产生影响。
首先對氣候談判集糰的髮展和縯變過程進行瞭繫統的分析,併根據不同階段的特徵,將其縯化過程劃分為四箇階段。接著從政治榦預、科學認知和利益驅動三箇方麵對影響氣候談判集糰成員立場的因素進行瞭歸納,在此基礎上對歐盟、傘形集糰、七十七國集糰+中國的談判立場未來縯變趨勢進行瞭分析,併得齣瞭以下結論:1)現有的三大氣候談判集糰將呈現不同的分化趨勢;2)未來共同的利益驅動將是決定今後各國氣候談判立場和氣候談判集糰重組的關鍵;3)區域和跨區域閤作組織開始在氣候閤作領域髮揮作用,對氣候談判集糰的縯化產生影響。
수선대기후담판집단적발전화연변과정진행료계통적분석,병근거불동계단적특정,장기연화과정화분위사개계단。접착종정치간예、과학인지화이익구동삼개방면대영향기후담판집단성원립장적인소진행료귀납,재차기출상대구맹、산형집단、칠십칠국집단+중국적담판립장미래연변추세진행료분석,병득출료이하결론:1)현유적삼대기후담판집단장정현불동적분화추세;2)미래공동적이익구동장시결정금후각국기후담판립장화기후담판집단중조적관건;3)구역화과구역합작조직개시재기후합작영역발휘작용,대기후담판집단적연화산생영향。
This study systematically analyzed the development and evolution process of climate negotiation groups, and divided its evolution process into four stages according to the characteristics of different stages. Then we summarized the factors that influenced the standpoint of members of climate negotiation groups from three aspects——political intervention, science cognition and driving interest. On the basis of the above, we analyzed the future evolution trend of the European Union, the Umbrella Group and the Group of 77 plus China and drew the following conclusions: (1) the existing three Climate negotiation groups will show differentiated trends; (2) mutual interests will be the key to the future recombination of climate negotiation groups; (3) regional and cross-regional cooperation organizations begin to play a role in climate cooperation and influence the evolution of climate negotiation groups.