CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于信息扩散的模糊数学理论模型，以贵州各区县1986—2010年的雷暴日观测数据为集值，分析各区县的雷暴活动强度分布情况，为防雷工程的合理化设计提供依据。分析结果表明：全省各区县雷暴活动强度以中、多雷暴区为主，其中少、中、多、强雷暴的发生概率分别为低于10.78％、低于61.82％、介于29.42％至99.85％之间、低于6.10％。雷暴活动强度区域分布大致随纬度变化，强雷暴、多雷暴、中雷暴、少雷暴频发区呈现由西南向北分布；其中西南部安龙、兴仁、盘县雷暴日高于90天的可能性高于其他区域，约为20a一遇；雷暴日不大于25天最可能发生在北部仁怀、赤水、务川等地，呈现10~20a一遇。
본문기우신식확산적모호수학이론모형，이귀주각구현1986—2010년적뇌폭일관측수거위집치，분석각구현적뇌폭활동강도분포정황，위방뢰공정적합이화설계제공의거。분석결과표명：전성각구현뇌폭활동강도이중、다뇌폭구위주，기중소、중、다、강뇌폭적발생개솔분별위저우10.78％、저우61.82％、개우29.42％지99.85％지간、저우6.10％。뇌폭활동강도구역분포대치수위도변화，강뇌폭、다뇌폭、중뇌폭、소뇌폭빈발구정현유서남향북분포；기중서남부안룡、흥인、반현뇌폭일고우90천적가능성고우기타구역，약위20a일우；뇌폭일불대우25천최가능발생재북부인부、적수、무천등지，정현10~20a일우。
In this paper, based on the fuzzy mathematics model of information diffusion theory, and the thunderstorm observation data 1986-2010 of each district and county in Guizhou province the thunderstorm intensity distribution of various districts and counties is analyzed, to provide the basis for the rational design of lightning protection engineering. The analysis results show that the thunderstorm activities in each county are mainly medium, and strong;and the probability of the less, medium, more, strong thunderstorms was less than 10. 78%, less than 61. 82%, ranging from 29. 42% to 99. 85%, less than 6. 10% respectively. The regional distribution of thunderstorm activity intensity roughly goes with latitude, and the frequent area of strong, more, medium, less thunderstorms distributed from southwest to North. The probability of more than 90 days of thunderstorms in the southwestern Anlong, Xingren, Panxian is higher than that in other areas about once every 20 years. Thounderstorms not more than 25 days are more likely in the northen Renhuai, Chishui, Wuchuan, about once every 10 to 20 years.