中国房地产(学术版)
中國房地產(學術版)
중국방지산(학술판)
China Real Estate
2015年
9期
3-12
,共10页
房价%居民消费%公共品供给%人力资本
房價%居民消費%公共品供給%人力資本
방개%거민소비%공공품공급%인력자본
Housing price%Household consumption%Public goods provision%Human capital investment
采用2004-2010省级宏观数据,通过建立房价与政府和居民人力资本支出的Panel VAR模型以及脉冲响应分析,探讨房价、政府公共品供给与居民人力资本支出的关系及其区域异质性。研究发现,从全国水平上来看,短期居民人力资本支出与房价正相关,与政府公共品供给负相关,住房价格上升对于居民消费产生挤压效用;从长期来看,住房价格的增加能够通过人力资本支出的渠道促进居民消费。东中西部地区计算结果与全国层面大体吻合,中部地区的房价和家庭人力资本支出相关性相对明显,短期挤出效应和长期促进效应最为显著。最后就中央政府、地方政府以及市场化企业等不同主体提出了相应建议。
採用2004-2010省級宏觀數據,通過建立房價與政府和居民人力資本支齣的Panel VAR模型以及脈遲響應分析,探討房價、政府公共品供給與居民人力資本支齣的關繫及其區域異質性。研究髮現,從全國水平上來看,短期居民人力資本支齣與房價正相關,與政府公共品供給負相關,住房價格上升對于居民消費產生擠壓效用;從長期來看,住房價格的增加能夠通過人力資本支齣的渠道促進居民消費。東中西部地區計算結果與全國層麵大體吻閤,中部地區的房價和傢庭人力資本支齣相關性相對明顯,短期擠齣效應和長期促進效應最為顯著。最後就中央政府、地方政府以及市場化企業等不同主體提齣瞭相應建議。
채용2004-2010성급굉관수거,통과건립방개여정부화거민인력자본지출적Panel VAR모형이급맥충향응분석,탐토방개、정부공공품공급여거민인력자본지출적관계급기구역이질성。연구발현,종전국수평상래간,단기거민인력자본지출여방개정상관,여정부공공품공급부상관,주방개격상승대우거민소비산생제압효용;종장기래간,주방개격적증가능구통과인력자본지출적거도촉진거민소비。동중서부지구계산결과여전국층면대체문합,중부지구적방개화가정인력자본지출상관성상대명현,단기제출효응화장기촉진효응최위현저。최후취중앙정부、지방정부이급시장화기업등불동주체제출료상응건의。
This paper studies the correlation between housing price,public goods provision as well as household human capital expenditure and examines the heterogeneous effect in urban China.Using Panel VAR model and the impulse response analysis with provincial macro data from 2004-2010,we find a significant positive effect of the housing price and a negative effect of governmental public goods provision on household human capital investment,which denote a squeeze effect of housing price on household consumption in the short term.In the long run,increase of housing prices can promote household consumption through human capital investment channels.At the regional level,the middle region shows significant correlations between housing price and household human capital investment, in both short-term squeeze effect and long-term promoting effect.This paper provides political implications from the role of central government,local government,and market driven enterprises.