CAJ | 학술논문

鄱阳湖生态经济区是江西省传统农业生产区，其粮食生产在江西省具有重要地位。本文基于鄱阳湖生态经济区25个县（市）2000—2013年的粮食生产数据，描述了粮食生产空间格局变迁的基本态势，测算了区域内粮食生产的空间相关性，并采用面板数据模型实证分析了粮食生产空间格局变迁的驱动因素。结果表明：鄱阳湖生态经济区25个县（市）粮食产量呈增加趋势；粮食生产空间分异明显；区域内粮食生产具有空间正相关性；耕地面积、粮食单产、复种指数、水资源丰沛程度、农民种粮积极性等指标是驱动鄱阳湖生态经济区25个县（市）粮食生产空间格局变迁的主要因素。
파양호생태경제구시강서성전통농업생산구，기양식생산재강서성구유중요지위。본문기우파양호생태경제구25개현（시）2000—2013년적양식생산수거，묘술료양식생산공간격국변천적기본태세，측산료구역내양식생산적공간상관성，병채용면판수거모형실증분석료양식생산공간격국변천적구동인소。결과표명：파양호생태경제구25개현（시）양식산량정증가추세；양식생산공간분이명현；구역내양식생산구유공간정상관성；경지면적、양식단산、복충지수、수자원봉패정도、농민충량적겁성등지표시구동파양호생태경제구25개현（시）양식생산공간격국변천적주요인소。
Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone, one of the traditional agricultural areas in Jiangxi Province, plays an important role in the grain production of the province. Based on the panel data of 25 counties around Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone from 2000 to 2013, this study describes the fundamental trend of regional varia-tion in grain production, measures the spatial correlation for various grain productions and analyzes the driving factors that influence the regional changes of grain production in terms of the spatial panel model. The results show that(1)the crop output in 25 counties around Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone presents a growth trend;(2) there appears obvious spatial differentiation between regional grain productions;(3)there exists a positive spatial correlation among grain productions in the zone;(4)the major elements that influence the regional variations of grain productions are the crop acreage, the per unit area yield of grain, the index of crop rotations, and the abun-dance of water and the farmer’ enthusiasm.