CAJ | 학술논문

系统收集和整理、分析了汶川地震灾区2008—2011年的160次泥石流事件和其对应的降雨过程，发现不同降雨因子对泥石流的发生所起的作用有所差异，超过77％的泥石流都是由暴雨激发，说明直接降雨因子，如当次降雨量和峰值雨强是诱发泥石流的最关键因子。通过各种降雨阈值方法的结果比较，发现不同区域各种降雨参数对泥石流发生的影响程度不同，因此用于泥石流预报的降雨指标不同，应采用的预报模型和临界阈值也不同。对于崇州市，可选用峰值雨强作为预报指标；汶川县可选用当次降雨量作为预报指标，对于其他地区，适宜用多因子模型（I－R和I－D）进行预报；相比较而言，绵竹、都江堰等地区的泥石流受前期降雨的作用影响较为明显，因此最适宜用峰值降雨强度和有效前期降雨关系（I－RT模型）进行预报。个别地区的阈值年度变化显示地震灾区泥石流的降雨阈值呈回升趋势，但远远未恢复至地震之前的水平。研究可为地震灾区的泥石流预警预报研究做出贡献。
계통수집화정리、분석료문천지진재구2008—2011년적160차니석류사건화기대응적강우과정，발현불동강우인자대니석류적발생소기적작용유소차이，초과77％적니석류도시유폭우격발，설명직접강우인자，여당차강우량화봉치우강시유발니석류적최관건인자。통과각충강우역치방법적결과비교，발현불동구역각충강우삼수대니석류발생적영향정도불동，인차용우니석류예보적강우지표불동，응채용적예보모형화림계역치야불동。대우숭주시，가선용봉치우강작위예보지표；문천현가선용당차강우량작위예보지표，대우기타지구，괄의용다인자모형（I－R화I－D）진행예보；상비교이언，면죽、도강언등지구적니석류수전기강우적작용영향교위명현，인차최괄의용봉치강우강도화유효전기강우관계（I－RT모형）진행예보。개별지구적역치년도변화현시지진재구니석류적강우역치정회승추세，단원원미회복지지진지전적수평。연구가위지진재구적니석류예경예보연구주출공헌。
Identification of rainfall thresholds is crucial for debris flow forecasting and hazards mitigation.This study collected 160 post earthquake debris flow events and responding rainfall processes through field investigation, and literature research,etc.By analyzing of the effect of different rainfall indexes for debris flow formation,it was found that the direct indexes,such as triggering rainfall intensity and inducing rainfall amount,were the key indexes for triggering debris flows.Different rainfall thresholds and models should be applied in different regions,according to the different effort of key rainfall indexes,due to the local underlying conditions,and especially climate condi-tions.The rainfall thresholds include peak rainfall intensity (Imax ),triggering rainfall amount (E),the relationship between mean rainfall intensity and duration (I-D),rainfall intensity and rainfall amount (I-R),and so on. These models could be used in different regions individually and their thresholds vary accordingly.It was also found that the rainfall thresholds are rising during the past several years,but still need a long time to recover to the thresh-olds level before the earthquake.This study can help for the debris flow forecasting and mitigation in the Wenchuan Earthquake stricken area in the following years.