CAJ | 학술논문

2013－07－10，持续强降雨导致汶川地震灾区都（江堰）汶（川）高速公路沿线的桃关沟、七盘沟等多处暴发大规模群发性泥石流灾害（简称“7·10”灾害），大量泥沙冲毁或淤埋民居、工厂厂房和都汶高速公路，造成直接经济损失达数亿元。为了科学评价泥石流危害性，对“7·10”暴发的9条典型泥石流沟选取流域面积、流域切割密度、一次冲出规模、沟道纵坡坡降、流域内物源动储量、年平均降雨量、堵塞系数等7个影响因子，分别根据灰色关联度法、熵值法和二项系数法得出各自权重值，然后采用优化组合赋权法推算出各影响因子的组合权重值。在此基础上建立危险性评价数学模型，计算出各沟危险度，结果显示与泥石流的现状和发展趋势相吻合。
2013－07－10，지속강강우도치문천지진재구도（강언）문（천）고속공로연선적도관구、칠반구등다처폭발대규모군발성니석류재해（간칭“7·10”재해），대량니사충훼혹어매민거、공엄엄방화도문고속공로，조성직접경제손실체수억원。위료과학평개니석류위해성，대“7·10”폭발적9조전형니석류구선취류역면적、류역절할밀도、일차충출규모、구도종파파강、류역내물원동저량、년평균강우량、도새계수등7개영향인자，분별근거회색관련도법、적치법화이항계수법득출각자권중치，연후채용우화조합부권법추산출각영향인자적조합권중치。재차기출상건립위험성평개수학모형，계산출각구위험도，결과현시여니석류적현상화발전추세상문합。
Continuous heavy rainfall caused many large-scale debris flows in Taoguan and Qipan gully and many others along the Duwen highway in Wenchuan earthquake area,Sichuan,China on July 10th,2013.Large amount of sediments destroyed and buried the residential areas、factory plants and parts of the Duwen highway,this caused a direct economic loss of hundreds of millions of RMB.In order to evaluate the risk degree of the debris flows scien-tifically,this paper selects 7 factors in 9 typical debris flow gullies:catchment area,watershed cutting density,once out of scale,channel slope gradient,dynamic reserves,average annual rainfall,block-up coefficient,using grey corre-lation degree method,entropy method and binomial coefficient method to obtain the weigh value of each factor.A-mong them grey correlation degree method and entropy method are objective weighting method,respectively consid-ering the effects of the association degree between each index and discrete measures of the index on comprehensive evaluation,while the binomial coefficient method is a subjective weighting method,it reflects the priority of the deci-sion maker’s concern about the indexes.Then by solving optimal solution of multi-objective optimization problem, the paper uses the optimal combination of empowerment method to give the combination weights,in order to estab-lish the mathematical model of the risk evaluation,calculate the risk grade of each gully.The results showed that the risk grade of the Taoguan gully and the Qipan gully are extremely dangerous,while the several other debris flow gullies are in high risk,which is consistent with the current situation and development trend of the debris flows.