CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用1994—2013年的年度数据,使用Eviews统计软件,分析人民币汇率、FDI流入与江西省贸易结构变量之间的相关性、平稳性检验和协整检验,剖析江西省人民币汇率、FDI流入对贸易结构的优化作用.得出结论:FDI流入对江西省贸易结构的优化起了很大的作用,这种影响关系是长期稳定的,这反映了FDI优化了江西省出口贸易结构. 但是汇率的上升总体来看对江西省的出口是不利的,同时汇率改革促进了江西省出口贸易. 汇率改革主要是通过对加工贸易的影响来对出口起作用,对一般贸易几乎没有影响.
본문이용1994—2013년적년도수거,사용Eviews통계연건,분석인민폐회솔、FDI류입여강서성무역결구변량지간적상관성、평은성검험화협정검험,부석강서성인민폐회솔、FDI류입대무역결구적우화작용.득출결론:FDI류입대강서성무역결구적우화기료흔대적작용,저충영향관계시장기은정적,저반영료FDI우화료강서성출구무역결구. 단시회솔적상승총체래간대강서성적출구시불리적,동시회솔개혁촉진료강서성출구무역. 회솔개혁주요시통과대가공무역적영향래대출구기작용,대일반무역궤호몰유영향.
Based on the annual data from 1994 to 2013, the paper carries on the correlation analysis, stationar-ity test and cointegration test between RMB exchange rate, FDI inflows, and the variables of the trade structure of Jiangxi Province by using Eviews statistical software. The paper analyzes the RMB exchange rate and FDI inflows in Jiangxi Province on the trade structure optimization. The results show that FDI inflows have played an impor-tant role in the optimization of the trade structure in Jiangxi Province, and this relationship is long-term and stable, which reflects that the FDI optimizes the structure of export trade. However, the rise in the exchange rate for the overall export is negative, while the exchange rate reform promotes the export trade. The reform is mainly through the impact on processing trade, and has nearly no impact on the general trade.