CAJ | 학술논문

在中国风电集中接入发展模式下,集群风电以虚拟机组(wind farm cluster virtual power generation unit,WCVPG)形式参与运行可提高其可调度性.对 WCVPG 出力特性的准确建模是将其纳入调度运行的基础.该模型的核心是风电的不确定性和波动性概率模型,其概率分布具有非平稳的特点,难以直接推导其解析表达式.该文提出一种建立WCVPG不同时段时变概率分布的方法.首先,基于非平稳随机过程概念,定义了概率分布和互相关系数时变特性;然后,基于实测数据论证了风电时变特性的客观存在.在此基础上,提出了一种基于离线时变状态相依模型集和在线蒙特卡罗抽样的WCVPG时变概率建模方法,基于实际系统和数据验证了其有效性,并证明了考虑风电概率分布时变特性可提高建模精度.
재중국풍전집중접입발전모식하,집군풍전이허의궤조(wind farm cluster virtual power generation unit,WCVPG)형식삼여운행가제고기가조도성.대 WCVPG 출력특성적준학건모시장기납입조도운행적기출.해모형적핵심시풍전적불학정성화파동성개솔모형,기개솔분포구유비평은적특점,난이직접추도기해석표체식.해문제출일충건립WCVPG불동시단시변개솔분포적방법.수선,기우비평은수궤과정개념,정의료개솔분포화호상관계수시변특성;연후,기우실측수거론증료풍전시변특성적객관존재.재차기출상,제출료일충기우리선시변상태상의모형집화재선몽특잡라추양적WCVPG시변개솔건모방법,기우실제계통화수거험증료기유효성,병증명료고필풍전개솔분포시변특성가제고건모정도.
Wind farm cluster virtual power generation (WCVPG) unit is a potential way to increase wind power's dispatch ability in China's centralized wind power development mode. Building WCVPG's output characteristic model is the foundation to consider WCVPG in dispatch strategy. Therefore, the main task here is to establish uncertainty and variability probabilistic distribution models. These probabilistic distribution models have the characteristic of non-stationary, which is difficult to obtain their analytic expression. Therefore, this paper proposed a method to build the time-varying probabilistic distributions for WCVPG during different time periods. Firstly, based on the concepts of non-stationary random process, the concepts of time-varying probabilistic distribution and time-varying cross correlation coefficient were defined. Afterwards, the existence of wind power's time-varying characteristic was demonstrated based on measured data. Then, a time-varying probabilistic distribution model method was proposed based on the offline time-varying state dependent model set and online Monte Carlo Sampling. Finally, the effectiveness of this method was verified by real system and measured data. The results show that considering the time-varying characteristic of wind power probabilistic distribution can increase the modeling accuracy.