CAJ | 학술논문

目前，我国工业和主要工业行业周期性运行特征的研究及运行态势的监测和预测明显不足。利用时差相关分析等方法，从我国工业运行相关的经济指标中筛选出我国工业经济运行的先行指标和一致指标，利用合成指数方法构建我国工业部门的景气指数，对我国工业经济运行态势进行季度比较分析，结果表明我国工业经济运行的整体趋势良好并将继续保持稳健上行，但在保持上行趋势的过程中不可避免地会出现局部循环波动。
목전，아국공업화주요공업행업주기성운행특정적연구급운행태세적감측화예측명현불족。이용시차상관분석등방법，종아국공업운행상관적경제지표중사선출아국공업경제운행적선행지표화일치지표，이용합성지수방법구건아국공업부문적경기지수，대아국공업경제운행태세진행계도비교분석，결과표명아국공업경제운행적정체추세량호병장계속보지은건상행，단재보지상행추세적과정중불가피면지회출현국부순배파동。
At present, China's industry and the monitoring and forecast of the main industry cycle operation characteristics and operation situation are obviously deficiencies. By using the methods of time difference correlation analysis, from the industrial operation related economic indicators selected leading indicators of economic operation of the industry in our country and the indicators, using the method of synthetic index to build China's industrial sector sentiment, quarterly assessment of China's industrial economic operation situation analysis, the results show that the overall trend of China's industrial economic operation is good and will continue to maintain the steady upward, but in the process of maintain the upward trend will inevitably appear local cycle fluctuation.