CAJ | 학술논문

本文采用LYQ模型分析中国丝绸之路经济带上交通基础设施投入与地区经济产出之间的动态关系，基于经济一体化推进经济增长过程构造逻辑因果链：交通基础设施（先行投入，道路联通因素）—运输（货物往来，物流运通因素）—贸易（经济往来，贸易畅通因素）—经济增长（发展目标，经济一体化）。实证分析得出结论，2003—2013年道路联通因素是推动经济带经济发展的主要因素，贸易畅通因素发挥了重要作用、并且表现为未来驱动经济带经济发展的关键因素，物流运通因素对经济带经济发展贡献为负，物流业结构调整必要且可行。
본문채용LYQ모형분석중국사주지로경제대상교통기출설시투입여지구경제산출지간적동태관계，기우경제일체화추진경제증장과정구조라집인과련：교통기출설시（선행투입，도로련통인소）—운수（화물왕래，물류운통인소）—무역（경제왕래，무역창통인소）—경제증장（발전목표，경제일체화）。실증분석득출결론，2003—2013년도로련통인소시추동경제대경제발전적주요인소，무역창통인소발휘료중요작용、병차표현위미래구동경제대경제발전적관건인소，물류운통인소대경제대경제발전공헌위부，물류업결구조정필요차가행。
Based on the LYQ model ,this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between transportation infrastructure and economic growth in Silk Road Economic Belt .According to the process of economic integration , causality chain is constructed as follows:infrastructure ( early investment ,road connectivity factor )-transportation ( exchange of goods ,logistics smooth factor)-trade(economic communication,trade facilitation factor)-economic growth(target,economic integration). With reference to data from 2003 to 2013 in Silk Road Economic Belt ,the empirical results show that road connectivity is the principal factor of economic growth ,trade facilitation plays an important role and shows a great potential in future ,while logistics smooth factor shows a negative contribution to economic growth ,which is necessary to adjust its structure .