CAJ | 학술논문

2015年国务院提请十二届全国人大三次会议审议的政府工作报告中提出使用研究与试验发展经费支出占GDP比重、能耗强度、中长期贷款量三个指标用于描绘经济发展水平。基于此，本文研究首先通过Pearson相关性检验，证明这三个指标与GDP高度相关，的确可以用于评价经济发展状况。然后根据主成分分析的方法，参照花旗银行编制“克强指数”1．0版本的思想，利用这三个指标创造“克强指数”2．0版本。最后利用能让人们切实感受到经济发展水平的“城镇家庭人均可支配收入”作为参照标准，使用1995—2013年的实际经济数据进行评价，证明该指数具有较高的可靠度和准确性。
2015년국무원제청십이계전국인대삼차회의심의적정부공작보고중제출사용연구여시험발전경비지출점GDP비중、능모강도、중장기대관량삼개지표용우묘회경제발전수평。기우차，본문연구수선통과Pearson상관성검험，증명저삼개지표여GDP고도상관，적학가이용우평개경제발전상황。연후근거주성분분석적방법，삼조화기은행편제“극강지수”1．0판본적사상，이용저삼개지표창조“극강지수”2．0판본。최후이용능양인문절실감수도경제발전수평적“성진가정인균가지배수입”작위삼조표준，사용1995—2013년적실제경제수거진행평개，증명해지수구유교고적가고도화준학성。
The 2015 government work report puts forward an idea that the government could use three indicators , which are R&D costing ,energy consumption intensity and loan volumes ,to describe the level of economic development .The paper first proves that the three indicators are really highly correlated with GDP and can be used to describe the level of economic development through the method of Pearson correlation test and regression theory .Then it uses the method of principal component analysis to create the “Keqiang index” 2.0 version with reference to the thought of how Citibank made the “Keqiang index”1.0 version.At last,it proves this index has a high reliability and accuracy by using the per capita disposable income of urban households as a standard .