CAJ | 학술논문

为研究地区经济增长、地方政府效率等环境变量对财政预决算偏差的影响，本文构建三个理论假设并通过面板数据协整模型、误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数及面板计量模型等方法对其进行检验，结果符合预期。研究表明：上述各要素之间存在长期和短期稳定关系；地区经济增长对预决算偏差的影响最为显著，呈现正向扩大效应；地方政府效率与预决算偏差的长期关系更加稳定，且对预决算偏差具负向冲击力；财政预决算偏差中，支出偏离度与收入偏离度的关系微弱，弹性系数较低。在经济新常态背景下，为缩小预决算偏差，我国应优化地方政府绩效评价体系，降低GDP指标权重，重视提升地方政府效率，推进建设规范有序的现代财政治理机制。
위연구지구경제증장、지방정부효솔등배경변량대재정예결산편차적영향，본문구건삼개이론가설병통과면판수거협정모형、오차수정모형、맥충향응함수급면판계량모형등방법대기진행검험，결과부합예기。연구표명：상술각요소지간존재장기화단기은정관계；지구경제증장대예결산편차적영향최위현저，정현정향확대효응；지방정부효솔여예결산편차적장기관계경가은정，차대예결산편차구부향충격력；재정예결산편차중，지출편리도여수입편리도적관계미약，탄성계수교저。재경제신상태배경하，위축소예결산편차，아국응우화지방정부적효평개체계，강저GDP지표권중，중시제승지방정부효솔，추진건설규범유서적현대재정치리궤제。
To research the influence of the environment variables, regional economic growth and provincial government efficiency, on the fiscal budget deviation, the article formulates three theoretical assumptions, and tests them with methods in-cluding the integration test, error correction model, impulse response function and the panel econometric model.The results are as follows:There exists a long-term and stable relationship among the research variables;the impact of regional economic growth on budget deviationshows a positive expansion effect, is the most conspicuous;the long-term relationship between local government efficiency and budget deviation is more stable, and local government efficiency has a negative impact on the budget deviation;the relationship between the fiscal budget expenditure and income divergence is rather weak, and the elasticity coef-ficient is low.To decrease the budget deviation, local government performance evaluation system should be optimized.Under the background of the new normal state of Chinese economy, it is urgent to decrease the GDP index weight, increase the gov-ernment efficiency, strengthen budgetary expenditure autonomy, and promote the building of modern financial governance mechanisms.