财经论丛（浙江财经学院学报）
財經論叢（浙江財經學院學報）
재경론총（절강재경학원학보）
Collected Essays on Finance and Economics
2015年
11期
25-33
,共9页
债务规模%债务结构%公共性债务%最优债务条件%经济增长
債務規模%債務結構%公共性債務%最優債務條件%經濟增長
채무규모%채무결구%공공성채무%최우채무조건%경제증장
debt scale%debt structure%public debt%optimal debt arrangements under conditions%economic growth
债务曾在中国过去长期高速经济增长中被奉为“神明”，又在当前经济步入“新常态”阶段而被斥为“魔鬼”，事实上，债务本身并无“善恶”之分，也不存在各地区普适的最优债务安排，合理的债务规模和结构应该适于经济体所处发展阶段。为探究经济增长目标下的最优债务条件，本文基于1978－2012年中国省级面板数据，实证研究发现中国的债务规模和债务结构之间存在着相互制约关系，债务总规模与公共性债务“双重增长”存在“最优解”，在此“最优解”之前无论是债务规模的增长或是公共性债务的增长均会带来经济增长，而在达到这一上限后，要实现经济增长，唯有在降低债务规模或是债务结构调整之间做出权衡。债务规模和债务结构的“最优解”以区域金融结构、财政收支、国有经济投资比重、城镇化率等为条件，稳健性检验再次验证了上述结论，并在此基础上提出相关政策建议。
債務曾在中國過去長期高速經濟增長中被奉為“神明”，又在噹前經濟步入“新常態”階段而被斥為“魔鬼”，事實上，債務本身併無“善噁”之分，也不存在各地區普適的最優債務安排，閤理的債務規模和結構應該適于經濟體所處髮展階段。為探究經濟增長目標下的最優債務條件，本文基于1978－2012年中國省級麵闆數據，實證研究髮現中國的債務規模和債務結構之間存在著相互製約關繫，債務總規模與公共性債務“雙重增長”存在“最優解”，在此“最優解”之前無論是債務規模的增長或是公共性債務的增長均會帶來經濟增長，而在達到這一上限後，要實現經濟增長，唯有在降低債務規模或是債務結構調整之間做齣權衡。債務規模和債務結構的“最優解”以區域金融結構、財政收支、國有經濟投資比重、城鎮化率等為條件，穩健性檢驗再次驗證瞭上述結論，併在此基礎上提齣相關政策建議。
채무증재중국과거장기고속경제증장중피봉위“신명”，우재당전경제보입“신상태”계단이피척위“마귀”，사실상，채무본신병무“선악”지분，야불존재각지구보괄적최우채무안배，합리적채무규모화결구응해괄우경제체소처발전계단。위탐구경제증장목표하적최우채무조건，본문기우1978－2012년중국성급면판수거，실증연구발현중국적채무규모화채무결구지간존재착상호제약관계，채무총규모여공공성채무“쌍중증장”존재“최우해”，재차“최우해”지전무론시채무규모적증장혹시공공성채무적증장균회대래경제증장，이재체도저일상한후，요실현경제증장，유유재강저채무규모혹시채무결구조정지간주출권형。채무규모화채무결구적“최우해”이구역금융결구、재정수지、국유경제투자비중、성진화솔등위조건，은건성검험재차험증료상술결론，병재차기출상제출상관정책건의。
Debt used to regarded as the“god” in China's rapid economic growth in the past and is now dismissed as the“devil” as the country's economy has stepped into a“new normal” phase at present.In fact, the debt itself is neither“good”nor“evil”, and there is no such thing as universal optimal debt arrangements, so a reasonable debt arrangement should be in line with the size and stage of the economic development.To explore the optimal conditions of debt for economic growth target, this paper conducts an emipirical research based on China's provincial Panel Data from 1978 to 2012 and finds that there is a mutual restraint between China's debt scale and debt structure, and there exists an“optimal solution” in the“double growth”of debt scale and debt structure Before the optimal solution, both the growth of debt scale and the growth of public debt ratio will lead to economic growth, but after reaching this limit, only by making trade-offs between reducing debt scale or restructu-ring debt can economic growth be achieved..The optimal solution of the regional debt scale and debt structure is attained in the premise of the financial structure, financial revenue and expenditure, the proportion of state-owned investment and the ur-banization rate.The robustness test further verifies these conclusions of the paper again.Lastly, some relevant policy recom-mendations have been put forward based on the conclusions of this paper.
