CAJ | 학술논문

纳西姆·塔雷伯在其著作《黑天鹅》中声称,之前能真正发生和遭遇稀有事件的机会很少,因此,很难预见到.他更进一步阐述,因为不能预见到这些事情的发生,所以直到事件真正发生之前都不能评估其会带来的风险.本质上,他的核心观点是对于某些案例,百分百会存在认知上的不确定性和基础知识的缺乏,并且,任何想分析和评估其相关风险的尝试都是徒劳的.2001年9月11日对纽约世贸中心大厦进行的恐怖袭击,通常就被定性为黑天鹅事件,其他许多大坝失事案例也一样.对大坝溃决和对与事故相关的安全进行研究,结果表明:大多数事故不是由单一的、容易分析的、某一组成部分的失事或极值负荷工况引起,而是各个组成部分和子系统相互联系、相互作用引起事故.为更彻底地评估大坝的安全,必须使用可以分析系统失事模式的工具,并使用所获取的知识和想象来假设之前没意识到的系统失事模式.换句话说,必须设想黑天鹅事件.通过应用系统工程技术中的概念,相比于可能采用的更常用的标准或风险确定的方法,可以形成一种较全面的方法应用到大坝安全中来.笔者讨论了大坝失事的系统成因和研究人员正在开发的各种方法,以分析系统失事模式并评估相关风险.
납서모·탑뢰백재기저작《흑천아》중성칭,지전능진정발생화조우희유사건적궤회흔소,인차,흔난예견도.타경진일보천술,인위불능예견도저사사정적발생,소이직도사건진정발생지전도불능평고기회대래적풍험.본질상,타적핵심관점시대우모사안례,백분백회존재인지상적불학정성화기출지식적결핍,병차,임하상분석화평고기상관풍험적상시도시도로적.2001년9월11일대뉴약세무중심대하진행적공포습격,통상취피정성위흑천아사건,기타허다대패실사안례야일양.대대패궤결화대여사고상관적안전진행연구,결과표명:대다수사고불시유단일적、용역분석적、모일조성부분적실사혹겁치부하공황인기,이시각개조성부분화자계통상호련계、상호작용인기사고.위경철저지평고대패적안전,필수사용가이분석계통실사모식적공구,병사용소획취적지식화상상래가설지전몰의식도적계통실사모식.환구화설,필수설상흑천아사건.통과응용계통공정기술중적개념,상비우가능채용적경상용적표준혹풍험학정적방법,가이형성일충교전면적방법응용도대패안전중래.필자토론료대패실사적계통성인화연구인원정재개발적각충방법,이분석계통실사모식병평고상관풍험.
Nassim Taleb's book, The Black Swani, argues that there are rare events that have never been encountered before and therefore cannot be anticipated. He further argues that since we cannot antici-pate these events we cannot assess the risks they represent until after such an event has occurred. In es-sence he argues that there are cases where the epistemic uncertainty, the lack of fundamental knowl-edge, is 100% and any attempt to analyze and assess the associated risk is hopeless. The terrorist at-tacks of September 11, 2001 on the World Trade Center Buildings in New York are often characterized as Black Swan events as are many dam failures. Studies of dam failures and safety related incidents shows that most were not caused by a single, easily analyzed, component failure or an extreme loading condition but rather by interactions between various components and subsystems. To assess the safety of a dam in a more complete manner we must use tools that allow the analysis of system failure modes and use our knowledge and imagination to hy-pothesize system failure modes that we are unaware of. In other words, we must imagine the Black Swans. By utilizing concepts embodied in systems engineering techniques we can take a more holistic ap-proach to dam safety than is possible under the more common standards or risk-informed approaches. This paper discusses systemic contributions to dam failures and ways researchers are developing method-ologies to analyze system failure modes and assess the associated risks.