CAJ | 학술논문

为分析鄱阳湖流域气候变化特征及评估其对流域径流的影响,研究利用1961-2010 年间鄱阳湖流域29个气象站和入湖"五河"水文控制站观测数据,分析该时段内流域气候和径流量变化趋势,建立统计模型分析其对流域径流量的影响. 研究结果表明:鄱阳湖流域年气温呈显著性( 99%置信度检验)波动上升趋势,流域降水总体呈略上升趋势,降水天数呈下降趋势. 受气候变化的影响,鄱阳湖流域径流量呈上升趋势. 统计模型计算结果表明,径流量与降雨变化呈非线性关系,径流量对降雨变化有着较强的敏感性,相同的气温变化情景下,降水增加比降水减少对径流量的影响更加显著,表明降水变化对径流量有着不同程度和方向的影响作用. 气温对径流的影响呈线性,但其影响不明显. 未来气候变化情景下,2050年前鄱阳湖流域在高排放A2和RCP8.5情景下呈现明显增长趋势,但其径流量低于其他排放情景.
위분석파양호류역기후변화특정급평고기대류역경류적영향,연구이용1961-2010 년간파양호류역29개기상참화입호"오하"수문공제참관측수거,분석해시단내류역기후화경류량변화추세,건립통계모형분석기대류역경류량적영향. 연구결과표명:파양호류역년기온정현저성( 99%치신도검험)파동상승추세,류역강수총체정략상승추세,강수천수정하강추세. 수기후변화적영향,파양호류역경류량정상승추세. 통계모형계산결과표명,경류량여강우변화정비선성관계,경류량대강우변화유착교강적민감성,상동적기온변화정경하,강수증가비강수감소대경류량적영향경가현저,표명강수변화대경류량유착불동정도화방향적영향작용. 기온대경류적영향정선성,단기영향불명현. 미래기후변화정경하,2050년전파양호류역재고배방A2화RCP8.5정경하정현명현증장추세,단기경류량저우기타배방정경.
In order to assess the effect of future climatic variation on runoff , the paper analyzed the temporal and spatial variation trends of climate and established a statistical model to study its impacts on the runoff by using the observational data of weather station and the annual runoff series (1961-2010 ) of five hydrologi-cal gauging stations within Poyang Lake watershed .The results indicated that annual temperature presents the obvious rising trend;it presents the significant increase especially in winter .Precipitation and its intensi-ty showed a slightly upward trend , and the risk of flood is increasing .The runoff in Poyang Lake watershed showed the increase trend , the temporal and spatial distribution became more unbalanced under the influ-ence of rising temperature and increasing precipitation .Model results show that the relationship between runoff and precipitation is non -linear .Runoff has a strong sensitivity to rainfall variation .Increased pre-cipitation has been more significant influence on runoff than decreased precipitation , which indicated that the precipitation changes played an important role in causing different effects of runoff .Under the condition of specified precipitation scenarios , the shifting relationship between the runoff and the temperature is line-ar.It is not obvious that temperature change impacts runoff .Under the future scenarios of climate change , the runoff Poyang Lake watershed appears obvious increase trend under the scenarios of high discharge A2and RCP8.5, while the runoff is lower than other emission scenarios until 2050.