CAJ | 학술논문

为解决流域事故性污染源搜索中"初始信息"主观性的难题,基于流域事故性污染源搜索的特点建立了非持久性污染物水质模型,以长江宜宾段为研究对象,采用现场采样室内试验的方式确定了该河段COD综合衰减系数,从而模拟了该河段各排污口在正常排污条件下的扩散浓度,通过与实际监测值的拟合 ,验证了模型的有效性.在此基础上,运用误差序列建立了获得事故污染源的初始概率的方法以及利用搜索行动对初始概率进行修正的方案,并实现了初始概率向后验概率转化,为流域事故性污染源搜索模型的目标分布函数的确定提供一种客观的科学方法.
위해결류역사고성오염원수색중"초시신식"주관성적난제,기우류역사고성오염원수색적특점건립료비지구성오염물수질모형,이장강의빈단위연구대상,채용현장채양실내시험적방식학정료해하단COD종합쇠감계수,종이모의료해하단각배오구재정상배오조건하적확산농도,통과여실제감측치적의합 ,험증료모형적유효성.재차기출상,운용오차서렬건립료획득사고오염원적초시개솔적방법이급이용수색행동대초시개솔진행수정적방안,병실현료초시개솔향후험개솔전화,위류역사고성오염원수색모형적목표분포함수적학정제공일충객관적과학방법.
Abstratc:To solute the subjective problem of original information in searching accidental pollution source in a basin, the paper set up water quality model of non-persistent pollutants based on the search charac -teristics of accidental pollution source .It took Yibin section of the Yangtze river as research object , and got the complex degradation coefficient of COD by the scene sampling and indoor experiment .It simulated the diffusion concentration of the sewage outfall in the river reach .Through fitting the actual monitoring value , the validity of this model is validate .On the above basis , it built a method of getting original prob-ability of accidental pollution sources by using error sequence and modified the original probability in search action .Therefore the original probability was transformed into posteriori probability .This result can provide an objective and scientific method for determining the target distribution function in the search model of accidental pollution sources in a basin .