CAJ | 학술논문

傍河水源取水可靠性论证需要对河流的径流量进行分析,为提高河流径流量预测的准确性,本文提出了基于初值优化的灰色-马尔科夫模型来预测河流流量状态的方法,该方法分别将系列第一时刻的数据、最后时刻的数据以及前一时刻的数据作为初始条件,对各预测结果进行了加权平均,建立优化后的GM(1,1)模型,再用马尔科夫模型对灰色预测结果进行修正. 运用该模型对辽河的巨流河水文站2000-2010 年1月和2月的径流量预测值与实际值进行对比,预测精度较高. 表明初值优化的灰色-马尔科夫模型预测方法可行,其预测较准确. 文中利用该模型预测了未来10年区段枯水期的河流径流量,进而分析了区段内拟建傍河水源地取水的可靠性,为拟建水源取水工程的水资源论证提供了技术依据.
방하수원취수가고성론증수요대하류적경류량진행분석,위제고하류경류량예측적준학성,본문제출료기우초치우화적회색-마이과부모형래예측하류류량상태적방법,해방법분별장계렬제일시각적수거、최후시각적수거이급전일시각적수거작위초시조건,대각예측결과진행료가권평균,건립우화후적GM(1,1)모형,재용마이과부모형대회색예측결과진행수정. 운용해모형대료하적거류하수문참2000-2010 년1월화2월적경류량예측치여실제치진행대비,예측정도교고. 표명초치우화적회색-마이과부모형예측방법가행,기예측교준학. 문중이용해모형예측료미래10년구단고수기적하류경류량,진이분석료구단내의건방하수원지취수적가고성,위의건수원취수공정적수자원론증제공료기술의거.
The reliability demonstration analysis of intaking water from riverside water resource requires the analysis of river runoff .In order to enhance the accuracy of predicting runoff of the river , the paper proposed a method of predicting river runoff state by using grey -markov model based on initial value op-timization.the method took series data of the first duration , data of the last duration and data before the last duration as the initial condition .The prediction results were weighted average .The optimized GM (1, 1) model was established and the grey prediction results were modified by the markov model .The model was utilized to compare the runoff predicted results and runoff actual results of Juliu river hydrological sta -tion of Lliaohe river from 2000 to 2010 in January and February , the prediction precision was high .It proved that the grey -markov model of initial value optimizing is feasible and the prediction is more accu-rate.The paper used the model to predict the dry river runoff in future 10 years and analyzed the reliabili-ty of water intake from a riverside water resource which will be constructed and provided the technical ba -sis for the water resources argumentation of proprosed water intaking engineering .