CAJ | 학술논문

“两晚”技术即冬小麦播期适当推迟，夏玉米适当晚收，是华北平原冬小麦-夏玉米生产体系适应气候变化的有效措施。本文应用 APSIM 模型模拟了充分灌溉和雨养条件下“两晚”技术对河北、山东和河南冬小麦-夏玉米轮作体系产量的影响。结果表明：与传统方式相比，气候变暖后（2000-2009年）如果采用“两晚”技术，雨养条件和充分灌溉条件下都会使小麦轻微减产，而玉米较大幅度增产，小麦-玉米轮作体系的产量增加，但各地增加的幅度会有不同。具体表现为：雨养条件下，河北、山东和河南小麦平均减产率分别为7.8%，5.1%和2.5%，玉米平均增产率分别为19.8%，14.5%和13.4%，三地小麦-玉米体系平均增产率分别为10.7%，3.2%和4.8%；充分灌溉条件下，河北、山东和河南小麦平均减产率分别为1.8%，0.5%和0.9%，玉米平均增产率分别为14.2%，8.0%和8.5%，三地小麦-玉米体系平均增产率分别为4.5%，3.4%和2.8%。说明华北平原冬小麦-夏玉米轮作方式中采用“两晚”技术能够适应当前气候变暖特点，实现总产量增加，其中河北省北部地区为增产高值区。
“량만”기술즉동소맥파기괄당추지，하옥미괄당만수，시화북평원동소맥-하옥미생산체계괄응기후변화적유효조시。본문응용 APSIM 모형모의료충분관개화우양조건하“량만”기술대하북、산동화하남동소맥-하옥미륜작체계산량적영향。결과표명：여전통방식상비，기후변난후（2000-2009년）여과채용“량만”기술，우양조건화충분관개조건하도회사소맥경미감산，이옥미교대폭도증산，소맥-옥미륜작체계적산량증가，단각지증가적폭도회유불동。구체표현위：우양조건하，하북、산동화하남소맥평균감산솔분별위7.8%，5.1%화2.5%，옥미평균증산솔분별위19.8%，14.5%화13.4%，삼지소맥-옥미체계평균증산솔분별위10.7%，3.2%화4.8%；충분관개조건하，하북、산동화하남소맥평균감산솔분별위1.8%，0.5%화0.9%，옥미평균증산솔분별위14.2%，8.0%화8.5%，삼지소맥-옥미체계평균증산솔분별위4.5%，3.4%화2.8%。설명화북평원동소맥-하옥미륜작방식중채용“량만”기술능구괄응당전기후변난특점，실현총산량증가，기중하북성북부지구위증산고치구。
“Double-Delay” technology, i.e., delaying both the sowing time of wheat and the harvesting time of maize, is an effective option for wheat and maize cropping system adapting to climate change in the North China Plain (NCP). To study the impact of “Double-Delay” technology on the yield of wheat-maize cropping system as well as the spatial variability of yield changes, APSIM model was used to simulate the impact of “Double-Delay” technology on wheat and maize yield under rain-fed and sufficient irrigation conditions in the NCP. The simulated results averaged from 2000 to 2009 showed that “Double-Delay” technology could lead to the reduction in wheat yield, but increase substantially maize yield and total yields of wheat-maize cropping system under rain-fed and sufficient irrigation conditions compared with the traditional planting pattern. Under rain-fed condition, the averaged increase rates of maize yield were 19.8%, 14.5% and 13.4%, respectively in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan provinces with the total increase rates of wheat-maize cropping system by 10.7%, 3.2% and 4.8%, respectively. Under sufficient irrigation condition, the averaged increase rates of maize were 14.2%, 8.0% and 8.5% in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan provinces, respectively with the total increase rates of wheat-maize cropping system were 4.5%, 3.4% and 2.8%, respectively. The increase in maize yield was attributed to the lengthened growth period of maize resulting from the delayed harvested time and the reduced field preparation time. The study results showed that “Double-Delay” technology increased the yield of wheat-maize system by adapting to climate change with higher increase rate in northern regions than in southern regions of NCP, especially in the Northern part of Hebei province. In general, “Double-Delay” technology is most suitable to apply in Hebei province. The study implied that adaptation options of agriculture to climate change should varied geographically.