CAJ | 학술논문

利用南疆地区52个气象台站1961-2013年逐年≥10℃积温、无霜冻期和最热月（7月）平均气温资料，使用线性趋势分析、累积距平和t检验以及基于ArcGIS的混合插值法对各热量要素的时空变化进行分析；结合新疆棉花种植气候区划指标，对比分析了1997年前后南疆棉花种植气候区划的变化。结果表明：南疆地区热量资源的空间分布总体呈现平原和盆地多，山区少的特点。全球变暖背景下，近53a，南疆地区≥l0℃积温、无霜冻期和7月平均气温分别以56.64℃?d?10a?1、3.15d?10a?1和0.15℃?10a?1(P＜0.05)的倾向率呈显著上升趋势，并分别于1997、1997和1994年发生突变，受其影响，1997年后较其之前，南疆地区中熟棉、中早熟棉区面积分别扩大17682km2和43033km2，早熟棉区面积变化不明显，特早熟棉区和不宜棉区分别减少4940km2和56589km2。
이용남강지구52개기상태참1961-2013년축년≥10℃적온、무상동기화최열월（7월）평균기온자료，사용선성추세분석、루적거평화t검험이급기우ArcGIS적혼합삽치법대각열량요소적시공변화진행분석；결합신강면화충식기후구화지표，대비분석료1997년전후남강면화충식기후구화적변화。결과표명：남강지구열량자원적공간분포총체정현평원화분지다，산구소적특점。전구변난배경하，근53a，남강지구≥l0℃적온、무상동기화7월평균기온분별이56.64℃?d?10a?1、3.15d?10a?1화0.15℃?10a?1(P＜0.05)적경향솔정현저상승추세，병분별우1997、1997화1994년발생돌변，수기영향，1997년후교기지전，남강지구중숙면、중조숙면구면적분별확대17682km2화43033km2，조숙면구면적변화불명현，특조숙면구화불의면구분별감소4940km2화56589km2。
Based on climatic data from 52 meteorological stations in southern Xinjiang during 1961-2013, the fundamental spatial-temporal change characteristic of annual accumulated temperature of≥10℃, frost-free period and mean temperature in July were analyzed by using the methods of linear regression, accumulative anomaly, T-test and mixed spatial interpolation technology based on ArcGIS. And the change of cotton-planting zoning was studied by combining with the cotton-planting climate division index. The main results are as the follows: heat resource was very obviously different in different regions of southern Xinjiang, generally, annual accumulated temperature of≥10℃,frost-free period and mean temperature in July were higher or more in plain areas than in mountain areas. In the background of global warming, the three indicators showed an increasing trend at the rates of 56.63℃·d·10y?1, 3.15d·10y?1 and 0.15℃·10y?1 in recent 53 years, and they had mutation in 1997, 1997 and 1994, respectively. Under the joint effects of the above-mentioned climate factors, the areas of middle maturing cotton and early-middle maturing cotton expanded 17682km2 and 43033km2respectively, early maturing cotton areas did not change significantly, but the areas of special early maturing cotton and unsuitable cotton planting areas decreased by 4940km2 and 56589km2 after 1997 than before in southern Xinjiang.