CAJ | 학술논문

实证研究表明，银行家眼中的适度货币供给并非简单的货币供应量等于货币需求量，而应该是一种超额货币供给，并且超出实际经济增长所需货币余额大约6．09个百分点。当超额货币供给偏离最优水平时，银行家更加愿意看到超额货币供给增加，而不是超额货币供给减少。当超额货币供给的边际产出效率递减以及宏观经济存在诸多不确定性时，过于宽松的货币政策可能引发银行家“惜贷”，反而削弱扩张性货币政策的有效性。
실증연구표명，은행가안중적괄도화폐공급병비간단적화폐공응량등우화폐수구량，이응해시일충초액화폐공급，병차초출실제경제증장소수화폐여액대약6．09개백분점。당초액화폐공급편리최우수평시，은행가경가원의간도초액화폐공급증가，이불시초액화폐공급감소。당초액화폐공급적변제산출효솔체감이급굉관경제존재제다불학정성시，과우관송적화폐정책가능인발은행가“석대”，반이삭약확장성화폐정책적유효성。
Empirical analysis shows that the modest monetary supply from perspective of bankers means excess supply to some ex?tend rather than the equation between supply and demand. It is modest that broader money supply outstrips demand for real economy growth by 6. 09 percent. Bankers prefer increasing excess supply rather than decreasing when monetary supply deviates from optimal level for some reason. Loose monetary policy perhaps leads to credit grudging of commercial banks and weakens effectiveness of mo?netary policy if marginal output of excess money decreases and future macro economy becomes more and more uncertain.