CAJ | 학술논문

为了探讨城市扩张、城镇化增速和经济增长三者间的作用与影响，文章选取1984～2013年的时间序列数据，利用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验和误差修正模型等方法，对它们之间的关系进行了动态分析。结果表明，我国城镇化发展速度没有明显滞后于经济增长的速度；城市扩张、城镇化增速与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的协整关系，但格兰杰因果关系在不同变量间存在差异。这说明我国土地利用效率不高，方式不合理，城镇化的规模效应、辐射效应、创新溢出效应等没能充分发挥作用。因此，有必要深化体制改革，推动“人的城镇化”的发展，加强城市土地的集约利用效率，促进产城融合，以实现我国经济的可持续发展。
위료탐토성시확장、성진화증속화경제증장삼자간적작용여영향，문장선취1984～2013년적시간서렬수거，이용협정검험、격란걸인과검험화오차수정모형등방법，대타문지간적관계진행료동태분석。결과표명，아국성진화발전속도몰유명현체후우경제증장적속도；성시확장、성진화증속여경제증장지간존재장기은정적협정관계，단격란걸인과관계재불동변량간존재차이。저설명아국토지이용효솔불고，방식불합리，성진화적규모효응、복사효응、창신일출효응등몰능충분발휘작용。인차，유필요심화체제개혁，추동“인적성진화”적발전，가강성시토지적집약이용효솔，촉진산성융합，이실현아국경제적가지속발전。
To identify the relationship among urban expansion ,urbanization and economic growth ,the paper makes a dynamic analysis by selecting time series data from 1984 to 2013 in China and using the methods of ADF test ,Granger causality test and error correction model .It was found that the speed of urbanization does not significantly lag behind the speed of economic grow th ;there is a long term stable co‐integration relationship among urban expansion ,urbanization and economic grow th .But there are differences among different indexes in Grainger Granger causality test indicating some low efficiency of land utilization ,unreasonable methods ,in‐effective use ofscale effect ,radiation effect ;and innovation spillover effect of urbanization .T herefore ,it is nec‐essary to deepen system reform and promote the development of human urbanization ,strengthen theintensive utilization efficiency of city land and acceleratethe integrationofindustry and city development ,so as toachieve sustainable development of China’s economy .