中国石油大学学报(社会科学版)
中國石油大學學報(社會科學版)
중국석유대학학보(사회과학판)
Journal of China University of Petroleum (Edition of Social Science)
2015年
5期
1-5
,共5页
国际油价波动%石油进口%结构向量自回归模型%石油储备
國際油價波動%石油進口%結構嚮量自迴歸模型%石油儲備
국제유개파동%석유진구%결구향량자회귀모형%석유저비
international oil price fluctuation%oil import%structural vector auto regression model%oil reserve
采用2001年1月至2014年10月国际石油价格和中国石油进口量的月度数据,运用结构向量自回归模型分析国际油价波动对中国石油进口的影响。结果显示,油价与石油进口之间存在正相关关系和双向格兰杰因果关系,且油价对进口的影响远大于进口对价格的影响。目前国际油价跌势迅猛,石油大量进口不会造成油价反弹,因此,中国应充分利用这次油价下跌的进口契机扩充石油战略储备,石油企业应进行资源整合并实现战略转型。
採用2001年1月至2014年10月國際石油價格和中國石油進口量的月度數據,運用結構嚮量自迴歸模型分析國際油價波動對中國石油進口的影響。結果顯示,油價與石油進口之間存在正相關關繫和雙嚮格蘭傑因果關繫,且油價對進口的影響遠大于進口對價格的影響。目前國際油價跌勢迅猛,石油大量進口不會造成油價反彈,因此,中國應充分利用這次油價下跌的進口契機擴充石油戰略儲備,石油企業應進行資源整閤併實現戰略轉型。
채용2001년1월지2014년10월국제석유개격화중국석유진구량적월도수거,운용결구향량자회귀모형분석국제유개파동대중국석유진구적영향。결과현시,유개여석유진구지간존재정상관관계화쌍향격란걸인과관계,차유개대진구적영향원대우진구대개격적영향。목전국제유개질세신맹,석유대량진구불회조성유개반탄,인차,중국응충분이용저차유개하질적진구계궤확충석유전략저비,석유기업응진행자원정합병실현전략전형。
Based on the average international oil price month data and China oil import month data from January, 2001 to October, 2014, this paper studies the econometric relationship between oil price and China oil import by using the structural vector auto regression model.The result shows that there exists positive correlation and a two-way Granger causality relationship between oil price and China oil import and oil price fluctuation has a greater influence on China oil import than that of China oil import on oil price. Since recently international oil price has dropped sharply and oil import in large scale will not cause oil price to rebound, we should take chance to increase oil import and to enlarge oil reserve, which also gives China oil enterprise a good change to implement resource integration and strategic transformation.