西安交通大学学报（社会科学版）
西安交通大學學報（社會科學版）
서안교통대학학보（사회과학판）
Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University (Social Sciences)
2015年
5期
78-85
,共8页
农村养老金缺口%老龄化高峰期%人口预测%养老保障体系
農村養老金缺口%老齡化高峰期%人口預測%養老保障體繫
농촌양로금결구%노령화고봉기%인구예측%양로보장체계
rural pension gap%peak period of aging population%population prediction%pension security system
通过农村人口预测研究对老龄化高峰期进行判定，构建了老龄化高峰期农村养老金缺口精算模型，并以陕西省为例对模型进行应用，测算农村养老金收支与差额，重点分析老龄化高峰期特殊时段缺口变动趋势与形成机理；研究结果表明：2032－2060年，陕西省农村处于人口老龄化高峰期时段，农村养老金收支在目标期间呈现当期盈余、当期缺口、累积缺口三个发展阶段，且老龄化高峰期内农村人口结构和养老金收支双重失衡，缺口规模呈几何级数增长，制度、基金均面临不可持续性风险；针对农林人口老龄化，养老金缺口等问题，提出调整农村人口年龄结构，拓展多元化筹资渠道，设计弹性养老金计发办法，科学判定老龄化高峰期等政策建议。
通過農村人口預測研究對老齡化高峰期進行判定，構建瞭老齡化高峰期農村養老金缺口精算模型，併以陝西省為例對模型進行應用，測算農村養老金收支與差額，重點分析老齡化高峰期特殊時段缺口變動趨勢與形成機理；研究結果錶明：2032－2060年，陝西省農村處于人口老齡化高峰期時段，農村養老金收支在目標期間呈現噹期盈餘、噹期缺口、纍積缺口三箇髮展階段，且老齡化高峰期內農村人口結構和養老金收支雙重失衡，缺口規模呈幾何級數增長，製度、基金均麵臨不可持續性風險；針對農林人口老齡化，養老金缺口等問題，提齣調整農村人口年齡結構，拓展多元化籌資渠道，設計彈性養老金計髮辦法，科學判定老齡化高峰期等政策建議。
통과농촌인구예측연구대노령화고봉기진행판정，구건료노령화고봉기농촌양로금결구정산모형，병이합서성위례대모형진행응용，측산농촌양로금수지여차액，중점분석노령화고봉기특수시단결구변동추세여형성궤리；연구결과표명：2032－2060년，합서성농촌처우인구노령화고봉기시단，농촌양로금수지재목표기간정현당기영여、당기결구、루적결구삼개발전계단，차노령화고봉기내농촌인구결구화양로금수지쌍중실형，결구규모정궤하급수증장，제도、기금균면림불가지속성풍험；침대농림인구노령화，양로금결구등문제，제출조정농촌인구년령결구，탁전다원화주자거도，설계탄성양로금계발판법，과학판정노령화고봉기등정책건의。
With the accelerated process of population aging,the peak period of population aging gets close gradually and the rural elderly and their demand increase rapidly.As a result,the pension gap scale is enlarged and the pension imbalance risk is exacerbated.This study determines the peak period of population aging by the rural population predic-tion and builds a rural pension gap actuarial model for the peak period of population aging.The model is applied by tak-ing Shaanxi Province as an example to calculate the rural pension income and expenditure and analyze the trend and for-mation mechanism of the rural pension gap,especially during the peak period of population aging.The results show that Shaanxi Province will be in the peak period of population aging from 2032 to 2060.The rural pension income and ex-penditure will be in three stages:current surplus,current gap and cumulative gap,during the target period;the rural population structure and the pension income and expenditure will be unbalanced;the pension gap will be growing in the geometric progression during the peak period of population aging;the system and fund will face unsustainable risks.Fi-nally,in order to resolve the population aging and control the rural pension gap scale,some suggestions are proposed:adjusting the rural population structure,spreading diversified financing channels,designing flexible pension payment methods,and scientifically determining the peak period of rural population aging.
