CAJ | 학술논문

根据适应性学习理论，建立专业机构通胀预期向公众传导的通胀预期异质模型，并将其引入到混合新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线，利用状态空间模型估计出公众通胀预期及混合新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线。研究结果表明：中国公众和专业机构通胀预期存在显著的异质性，公众通胀预期具有适应性学习和滞后性特点；中国通货膨胀的形成同时具有前瞻性和后顾性特点。管理通胀预期不仅需要政府对一些宏观经济变量的调控，还需要政府加强信息披露制度，强化公众与央行、专业预测机构之间的信息沟通渠道等措施。
근거괄응성학습이론，건립전업궤구통창예기향공음전도적통창예기이질모형，병장기인입도혼합신개은사비리보사곡선，이용상태공간모형고계출공음통창예기급혼합신개은사비리보사곡선。연구결과표명：중국공음화전업궤구통창예기존재현저적이질성，공음통창예기구유괄응성학습화체후성특점；중국통화팽창적형성동시구유전첨성화후고성특점。관리통창예기불부수요정부대일사굉관경제변량적조공，환수요정부가강신식피로제도，강화공음여앙행、전업예측궤구지간적신식구통거도등조시。
According to the adaptive learning theory,this paper established a heterogeneous inflation expectation conduction model from professional institutions to the public,and mixed it into to the new Keynesian Phillips curve to estimate the public inflation expectations and hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve through state space model.The empirical results showed that:inflation expectation presented significant heterogeneity between the public and professional organizations, and public inflation expectations were provided with adaptive learning and hysteresis.The formation of inflation in our country had the dynamic properties of the forward-looking as well as looking back.Management of inflation expectations required not only government regulation of some macroeconomic variables,but also demanded the government to strengthen the information disclosure system,strengthen microcosmic measures such as information communication channels among the public,the central bank and professional forecasters.