CAJ | 학술논문

在分析1978-2014年中国能源效率序列长期趋势和周期性波动的基础上，设计中国能源效率、经济发展速度及能源消费总量的时间序列模型，利用计量模型分析2015-2020年中国的能源消费需求总量的倾向性，结果表明：到2020年中国的能源效率将提高到1.7753万元/吨标准煤，能源消费需求总量将超过60亿吨标准煤；同时，进一步利用改进设计的状态空间模型，分析未来一段时期中国能源消费需求主要构成的比重变化情况。
재분석1978-2014년중국능원효솔서렬장기추세화주기성파동적기출상，설계중국능원효솔、경제발전속도급능원소비총량적시간서렬모형，이용계량모형분석2015-2020년중국적능원소비수구총량적경향성，결과표명：도2020년중국적능원효솔장제고도1.7753만원/둔표준매，능원소비수구총량장초과60억둔표준매；동시，진일보이용개진설계적상태공간모형，분석미래일단시기중국능원소비수구주요구성적비중변화정황。
Based on the analysis of the long-term trend and periodic fluctuation of China's energy efficiency from 1 978 to 2014,we designed the time series model of China's energy efficiency,GDP growth rate and the total energy consumption ,using the model we analyzed the tendency of the total energy consumption in china from 2014 to 2020,the results showed that China's energy efficiency would be raising to 17753 yuan/tons of standard coal and the total energy consumption demand would be more than 6 billion tons of standard coal by 2020.And then we used a specially designed state space model to complete the structure decomposition of the total energy demand's forecasting results. Finally, we analyzed the proportion changes in mainly composed of energy demand in China's future.