CAJ | 학술논문

文章运用本底趋势线法和加权TOPSIS模型，从旅游自我成长和旅游外源成长两个视角出发构建旅游成长综合指标体系，对2002－2012年张家界旅游产业成长进行定量分析。结果发现：2002－2012年张家界旅游产业成长由直线成长趋势和一个周期波动组成；突发事件对张家界旅游产业的成长带来巨大影响，但突发事件周期一般较短，不会改变旅游产业成长的基本趋势。S A RS、禽流感、2008年的重大事件和环境问题对张家界旅游产业成长造成的损失率分别为28．4％、17．6％、9．9％、1．3％；宣传力度的加大和相关政策的出台能够推动旅游产业成长；张家界旅游产业抵御突发事件的能力正逐渐增强，旅游产业的自我成长和外源成长相互作用能够降低突发事件的影响。
문장운용본저추세선법화가권TOPSIS모형，종여유자아성장화여유외원성장량개시각출발구건여유성장종합지표체계，대2002－2012년장가계여유산업성장진행정량분석。결과발현：2002－2012년장가계여유산업성장유직선성장추세화일개주기파동조성；돌발사건대장가계여유산업적성장대래거대영향，단돌발사건주기일반교단，불회개변여유산업성장적기본추세。S A RS、금류감、2008년적중대사건화배경문제대장가계여유산업성장조성적손실솔분별위28．4％、17．6％、9．9％、1．3％；선전력도적가대화상관정책적출태능구추동여유산업성장；장가계여유산업저어돌발사건적능력정축점증강，여유산업적자아성장화외원성장상호작용능구강저돌발사건적영향。
Based on the theory of natural trend curve and weighted topsis model ,the article selects 2 large systems such as tourism industry of the self‐grow th and exogenous grow th to construct the index system of Zhangjiajie tourism industry grow th ,quantitative analysis oftourism industry grow th from 2002 to 2012 . Result show s that :Zhangjiajie tourism industry grow th in the research stage components by a linear grow‐ing trend and a cyclical fluctuations .Unexpected events have a tremendous impact on the growth of the tourism industry in Zhangjiajie ,but emergency period is generally shorter ,does not change the basic trend of the grow th of the tourism industry .SARS ,avian flu ,the 2008 major events and environmental problems caused loss rates were 28 .4% ,17 .6% ,9 .9% ,1 .3% .Increase efforts of publicity and appear relevant poli‐cies can promote the growth of the tourism industry .The ability to resist sudden incident Zhangjiajie tourism industry is gradually increased ,the tourism industry of the self‐grow th and exogenous grow th in‐teraction can drop to the impact of unexpected events .