CAJ | 학술논문

针对多种微博舆论同时竞争传播的情形，提出了一种多种群 Lotka-Volterra 分析模型。影响某种微博舆论传播的因素包括它的当前舆论量、内生增长速度、潜在生长空间，以及其他微博舆论的竞争作用。根据竞争系数矩阵可以判断不同微博舆论之间的竞争模式，模型能够反映微博舆论多种观点竞争与协同的传播机制。用提出的模型分析了新浪微博“拐卖儿童判死刑”事件中的四种舆论的竞争形式，分析方法可以为复杂微博舆论的研判与管理提供有效依据。
침대다충미박여론동시경쟁전파적정형，제출료일충다충군 Lotka-Volterra 분석모형。영향모충미박여론전파적인소포괄타적당전여론량、내생증장속도、잠재생장공간，이급기타미박여론적경쟁작용。근거경쟁계수구진가이판단불동미박여론지간적경쟁모식，모형능구반영미박여론다충관점경쟁여협동적전파궤제。용제출적모형분석료신랑미박“괴매인동판사형”사건중적사충여론적경쟁형식，분석방법가이위복잡미박여론적연판여관리제공유효의거。
In this paper, a multi-species Lotka-Volterra model is proposed to describe the competitive spreading of multiple opinions in Weibo system. The spreading of a certain Weibo opinion is influenced by many factors including the current opinion volume, the inherent growth speed, the potential growth space, and the competition of other Weibo opinions. The patterns of competition can be observed from the competition coefficient matrix. The model proposed can explain the competitive and cooperative spreading mechanism of multiple Wei-bo opinions. Based on this model, the competitive patterns of four opinions in “ death penalty for children traffickers” Weibo event are then analyzed. The proposed method provides an effective basis for judgment and management of complex Weibo opinions.