CAJ | 학술논문

以生命周期理论为基础，将微博舆情周期与触发事件客观因素周期相联系，进行线上线下的跨域周期波动研究，提出一整套研究思路和研究方法，并以微博雾霾事件为例进行实证分析，考察了思路的可行性，实证结论揭示了微博雾霾舆情周期与客观因素周期之间的互动规律，提出微博舆情预测模型。深化了微博舆情周期理论，并为微博舆情预警提供了新思路，在理论性和实用性方面都具有重要价值。
이생명주기이론위기출，장미박여정주기여촉발사건객관인소주기상련계，진행선상선하적과역주기파동연구，제출일정투연구사로화연구방법，병이미박무매사건위례진행실증분석，고찰료사로적가행성，실증결론게시료미박무매여정주기여객관인소주기지간적호동규률，제출미박여정예측모형。심화료미박여정주기이론，병위미박여정예경제공료신사로，재이론성화실용성방면도구유중요개치。
Combining the period of microblogging public opinion and the period of objective factors triggering the microblogging events, this paper conducts a cross-field research on periodic fluctuation of online and offline. The paper puts forward a complete set of research ideas and research methods, and conducts an empirical research to test the feasibility of the ideas, taking the haze event on microblogging as an example. The conclusion implies the interactive rules between the periods of microblogging public opinion and objective factors, and proposes a microblogging public opinion forecasting model. The study deepens the theory of periodic microblogging public opinion, and provides a new way for the early warning of microblogging public opinion, and the paper has significant values in both theoretical and practical aspects.