西南师范大学学报(自然科学版)
西南師範大學學報(自然科學版)
서남사범대학학보(자연과학판)
Journal of Southwest China Normal University (Natural Science Edition)
2015年
10期
154-159
,共6页
专家可信度%山区公路建设%风险因素%指标体系%风险评价
專傢可信度%山區公路建設%風險因素%指標體繫%風險評價
전가가신도%산구공로건설%풍험인소%지표체계%풍험평개
expert credibility%mountainous highway construction%risk elements%indicator system%risk assessment
根据山区公路建设特点,结合依托工程构建了具有5个指标的风险因素安全评价指标体系,并在3个级别的专家中开展问卷调查,进行评价指标因素间重要程度判断以及对于5个等级的风险评价集的隶属度评判,引入专家可信度影响并开展模糊评价,最终确定山区公路建设的风险程度。结果表明:安全评价指标体系、专家分级与风险评价集符合山区公路建设风险评价要求,专家个体针对安全评价指标的重要程度判断和风险度评判具有明显差别,开展专家可信度分析是在考虑个体影响基础上形成统一的量化结果的有效方法,结合专家可信度分析的模糊层次分析法可有效解决山区公路建设风险评价相关问题。
根據山區公路建設特點,結閤依託工程構建瞭具有5箇指標的風險因素安全評價指標體繫,併在3箇級彆的專傢中開展問捲調查,進行評價指標因素間重要程度判斷以及對于5箇等級的風險評價集的隸屬度評判,引入專傢可信度影響併開展模糊評價,最終確定山區公路建設的風險程度。結果錶明:安全評價指標體繫、專傢分級與風險評價集符閤山區公路建設風險評價要求,專傢箇體針對安全評價指標的重要程度判斷和風險度評判具有明顯差彆,開展專傢可信度分析是在攷慮箇體影響基礎上形成統一的量化結果的有效方法,結閤專傢可信度分析的模糊層次分析法可有效解決山區公路建設風險評價相關問題。
근거산구공로건설특점,결합의탁공정구건료구유5개지표적풍험인소안전평개지표체계,병재3개급별적전가중개전문권조사,진행평개지표인소간중요정도판단이급대우5개등급적풍험평개집적대속도평판,인입전가가신도영향병개전모호평개,최종학정산구공로건설적풍험정도。결과표명:안전평개지표체계、전가분급여풍험평개집부합산구공로건설풍험평개요구,전가개체침대안전평개지표적중요정도판단화풍험도평판구유명현차별,개전전가가신도분석시재고필개체영향기출상형성통일적양화결과적유효방법,결합전가가신도분석적모호층차분석법가유효해결산구공로건설풍험평개상관문제。
Based on the characteristics of the mountainous highway construction and related project ,an in-dicator system of evaluation that contains 5 risk elements has been built up .Survey questionnaires are con-ducted in 3 levels of experts to decide the weighting coefficient of the risk elements ,and determine their membership grade to the 5 level risk evaluation set .The expert credibility effect is considered in the risk e-valuation ,and the risk degree of mountainous highway construction is fixed .Some results show that the indicator system ,expert class and risk evaluation set have fulfilled the need of the mountainous highway construction .The assessment result of the weighting coefficient and membership grade of individual expert is different .Expert credibility analysis is an effective method to bond the individual judgment to form inte-grated quantizing result .The analytic hierarchy process combined with expert credibility analysis is suffi-cient to resolve the relevant risk evaluation problems in the mountainous highway construction .