CAJ | 학술논문

根据粮食产量与各影响因素的相关系数的大小,选取具有代表性的指标,通过因子分析法对湖南粮食生产作了实证分析.各因素对粮食产量的贡献率依次为:农业用电量>农业薄膜使用量>有效灌溉面积>农业财政支出;受灾面积、耕地面积减少数、农业劳动人口数、农业技术人员、通电话数、第一产业占GDP的比对粮食产量的弹性是负值.通过主成分分析可知,2006-2012年湖南粮食生产能力处于下降趋势.因此要尽量加大发挥弹性为正值指标的作用,使湖南的粮食从数量和质量上达到安全,以实现全国粮食主产区的安全生产.
근거양식산량여각영향인소적상관계수적대소,선취구유대표성적지표,통과인자분석법대호남양식생산작료실증분석.각인소대양식산량적공헌솔의차위:농업용전량>농업박막사용량>유효관개면적>농업재정지출;수재면적、경지면적감소수、농업노동인구수、농업기술인원、통전화수、제일산업점GDP적비대양식산량적탄성시부치.통과주성분분석가지,2006-2012년호남양식생산능력처우하강추세.인차요진량가대발휘탄성위정치지표적작용,사호남적양식종수량화질량상체도안전,이실현전국양식주산구적안전생산.
According to the correlation coefficient between grain yield and the factors,the representative index was selected, and the empirical analysis of the province's grain production was made by the factor analysis method.The conclusions are as follows:the contribution rate of grain yield to grain out:agricultural use electricity is greater than the use of agricultural film,the use of agricultural film is greater than the effective irrigation area,the effective irrigation area is greater than the agricultural fi-nance expenditure.the disaster area,the reduction of arable land area,the number of agricultural workers,the number of agri-cultural workers,the elasticity of the first industry accounts for GDP of the elasticity of grain output is negative.Through princi-pal component analysis,we can know that the grain production capacity of our province is in a downward trend in the 2006-2012 years.Therefore,we should increase the role of flexibility as a positive indicator,so that the number and quantity of food in Hunan to achievesecurity,in order to achieve the national food production areas of security.