CAJ | 학술논문

通过构建一个包括经济总量、地区结构、电力消费强度、碳排放系数四因素的分解模型,运用LMDI方法对2000-2011年江苏工业电力消费的CO2排放量进行了地区分解.结果发现,经济总量的扩张始终是导致地区碳排放增长的决定性因素;而其余三因素对不同地区的碳排放的作用方向不确定,具体表现为部分地区部分时段促使碳排放量增加,部分时段却导致碳排放量减少;且影响程度大小不一,相比较而言,地区结构的作用程度最小,碳排放系数最大,而电力消费强度介于两者之间.
통과구건일개포괄경제총량、지구결구、전력소비강도、탄배방계수사인소적분해모형,운용LMDI방법대2000-2011년강소공업전력소비적CO2배방량진행료지구분해.결과발현,경제총량적확장시종시도치지구탄배방증장적결정성인소;이기여삼인소대불동지구적탄배방적작용방향불학정,구체표현위부분지구부분시단촉사탄배방량증가,부분시단각도치탄배방량감소;차영향정도대소불일,상비교이언,지구결구적작용정도최소,탄배방계수최대,이전력소비강도개우량자지간.
s: Electricity consumption of carbon dioxide emissions has increased significantly. This paper builds a four-factor model including the economic scale, the regional structure, the intensity of power consumption and the coefficient of carbon emissions. By using LMDI method and the data of Jiangsu's industrial electricity consumption from 2000 to 2011, it makes a regional decomposition. The conclusions indicate that the economic development has always been the decisive factor, while the other three factors are uncertain about the effect of carbon emissions in different regions. For some regions, carbon emissions increase at certain periods, while they reduce at other peri-ods and the influence degrees are different. In comparison, the minimum extent is the regional structure, the largest is the carbon emission factor, and the intensity of power lies between them.