CAJ | 학술논문

基于DDEPM模型对1984-2020年的中国碳排量和GDP进行预测,对预测值进行Johansen协整检验,然后展开碳排放量与GDP的脱钩分析. 结果表明,①2020年单位GDP碳排放量将比2005年降低61.49%,超过中国政府碳减排目标,中国将在2014年提前实现降低幅度为40%的碳减排目标;②1984-2010年,碳排放量与GDP关系整体处于弱脱钩态势,表明中国经济增长在一定程度上带动了碳排放量的增长,但是经济增长速度大于碳排放量增长速度;③预测2010-2020年十年间中国弱脱钩的状态并没有改变,表明碳减排目标的实现并未改变经济增长与碳排放的弱脱钩状态. 最后根据研究结论,提出未来的研究方向.
기우DDEPM모형대1984-2020년적중국탄배량화GDP진행예측,대예측치진행Johansen협정검험,연후전개탄배방량여GDP적탈구분석. 결과표명,①2020년단위GDP탄배방량장비2005년강저61.49%,초과중국정부탄감배목표,중국장재2014년제전실현강저폭도위40%적탄감배목표;②1984-2010년,탄배방량여GDP관계정체처우약탈구태세,표명중국경제증장재일정정도상대동료탄배방량적증장,단시경제증장속도대우탄배방량증장속도;③예측2010-2020년십년간중국약탈구적상태병몰유개변,표명탄감배목표적실현병미개변경제증장여탄배방적약탈구상태. 최후근거연구결론,제출미래적연구방향.
The Chinese carbon emission and GDP from 1984 to 2020 were predicted based on DDEPM model, and Johansen Cointegration test of the predictive values was performed, then the decoupling analysis between carbon emission and GDP was conducted.The conclusions can be listed as follows: ①The carbon emission per unit of GDP in 2020 would be lower 61.49% than 2005, more than Chinese government carbon emission reduction target, and in 2014 China will achieve 40%carbon reduction target in advance.②The relationship between carbon emission and GDP was in the weak decoupling state from 1980 to 2009, which showed Chinese economic growth have promoted carbon emission to a certain extent, but the speed of economic growth was higher than carbon emission.③The weak decoupling state predicted from 2010 to 2020 do not change, which indicated the realization of carbon reduction target do not change the weak decoupling state between economic growth and carbon emission.At last, the future research direction based on above conclusions was put forward.