CAJ | 학술논문

本文引入中国特有的“统账结合”混合社会养老保险制度，构建了一个带有遗赠动机的理性预期代际交叠（OLG）模型，证明了劳动人口占比与资产价格存在正相关关系。在此基础上，本文以股票和商品房两类资产为例，检验了人口结构变化与中国资产价格之间的关系。结果显示，人口结构的变化只对房地产市场价格的变动有显著影响，而这一现象是由中国股票市场、房地产市场、居民金融资产结构等多方面的现实特点造成的。根据本文的研究结果，旨在改善人口老龄化问题的多种政策将有助于促进中国房地产市场的平稳发展。
본문인입중국특유적“통장결합”혼합사회양로보험제도，구건료일개대유유증동궤적이성예기대제교첩（OLG）모형，증명료노동인구점비여자산개격존재정상관관계。재차기출상，본문이고표화상품방량류자산위례，검험료인구결구변화여중국자산개격지간적관계。결과현시，인구결구적변화지대방지산시장개격적변동유현저영향，이저일현상시유중국고표시장、방지산시장、거민금융자산결구등다방면적현실특점조성적。근거본문적연구결과，지재개선인구노령화문제적다충정책장유조우촉진중국방지산시장적평은발전。
Introducing “social pooling and individual account combination”,this paper builds a rational expectation OLG model with bequest motive and China’s mixed pension system,and proves that the rate of labor force and total population is positively related to asset prices.On this basis,this paper takes two types of assets—stocks and commodity houses as examples to analyze the influence of China’s demographic structure on asset prices.This paper finds that China’s demographic structure only has a significant impact on housing prices,but has no significant impact on stock prices.This results come from the realistic char-acteristics of China’s stock market,the real estate market,the structure of residents’financial assets and so on.According to the results of this paper,appropriate demographic structure policies will help to pro-mote the steady development of the real estate market.