CAJ | 학술논문

在我国社会转型期各种类型环境污染群体性事件频繁发生.根据环境污染群体性事件信息传播的阈值特征和类型特征,运用Kermack-Mckendrick传染病模型,构建了环境污染突发事件的信息传播模型,分析了信息传播(尤其是谣言传播)的特征,以及政府采取信息控制措施如何影响事态演化规律,最后,结合"杞人忧钴"事件进行了环境污染群体性事件演化过程的算例分析.研究表明,在谣言的自身传播过程中,谣言传播者的人数先单调增加,达到一个最大值,然后单调减少并趋于零;地方政府对谣言传播施加有效的控制措施,能够降低谣言传播的最大阈值,促使事态尽快收敛.
재아국사회전형기각충류형배경오염군체성사건빈번발생.근거배경오염군체성사건신식전파적역치특정화류형특정,운용Kermack-Mckendrick전염병모형,구건료배경오염돌발사건적신식전파모형,분석료신식전파(우기시요언전파)적특정,이급정부채취신식공제조시여하영향사태연화규률,최후,결합"기인우고"사건진행료배경오염군체성사건연화과정적산례분석.연구표명,재요언적자신전파과정중,요언전파자적인수선단조증가,체도일개최대치,연후단조감소병추우령;지방정부대요언전파시가유효적공제조시,능구강저요언전파적최대역치,촉사사태진쾌수렴.
In the period of social transition in China, all types of mass incidents of environmental pollution occurred frequently. Based on the threshold of mass incidents of environmental pollution information transmission features and types and using the Kermack Mckendrick epidemic model, this paper builds a ring of gold pollution emergency information transmission model, and analyzes characteristics of information transmission (especially the rumor spread) and how the government's information control measures influence the situation evolution. Finally, combined with "worrywarts sorrow cobalt" event, it analyzes the mass incidents of environmental pollution evolution process. Research shows that in the process of spread rumors of its own, the number of rumor-mongers monotonic increases first, reaching a maximum value, then monotone decreases and tends to zero. Besides, local governments exert effective control measures on rumors spread, which can maximum threshold to reduce the spread of rumors and prompt the situation convergence as soon as possible.