CAJ | 학술논문

利用连云港1960-2011年连续51 a长期波浪资料,针对不同资料年限共分41组情况,结合适用本海域的年N大波法(N=8)与三参数Weibull分布函数的最优组合方式,进行设计波高计算与比较分析,得到更优资料年限,以及满足精度要求的最少年限等结论.结果表明:在连云港海域,对于中长期资料年限,19~30 a结果相对稳定可靠,对于长期资料年限, 47 a以上更为合理,结果可信.同时给出计算百年一遇重现期时47 a以上资料较为合理,五十年一遇重现期时19~30 a较为合适,最少也得19~22 a,二十年一遇重现期时至少需要15~18 a.
이용련운항1960-2011년련속51 a장기파랑자료,침대불동자료년한공분41조정황,결합괄용본해역적년N대파법(N=8)여삼삼수Weibull분포함수적최우조합방식,진행설계파고계산여비교분석,득도경우자료년한,이급만족정도요구적최소년한등결론.결과표명:재련운항해역,대우중장기자료년한,19~30 a결과상대은정가고,대우장기자료년한, 47 a이상경위합리,결과가신.동시급출계산백년일우중현기시47 a이상자료교위합리,오십년일우중현기시19~30 a교위합괄,최소야득19~22 a,이십년일우중현기시지소수요15~18 a.
Using the storm peak wave height data collected from Lianyungang sea area from 1960 to 2011, the design wave heights are calculated and comparatively analyzed by forty-one groups of different statistic data series, combined with the best combination method of annual 8-largest wave heights and three parameter Weibull distribution function suitable to this sea area. The better years of statistic data series and minimum years meeting accuracy requirements are got. It is found that the results of 19~30 years are relatively stable and reliable for the medium long term statistic data series, while more than 47 years are more reasonable and reliable for long term statistic data series at Lianyungang sea area. The study also suggests that more than 47 years of statistic data series are reliable to calculate design wave height of 100-year return period. And 19~30 years are suitable to calculate the design wave height of 50-year return period, at least 19~22 years. While 15~18 years are the minimum years to calculate the design wave height of 20-year return period.