暴雨灾害
暴雨災害
폭우재해
Torrential Rain and Disasters
2015年
3期
239-248
,共10页
SWAN%沙澧河流域%特大暴雨%QPE%QPF
SWAN%沙澧河流域%特大暴雨%QPE%QPF
SWAN%사례하류역%특대폭우%QPE%QPF
SWAN%Shali River Basin%extraordinary rainstorm%QPE%QPF
利用灾害性天气短时临近预报业务系统(SWAN,Severe Weather Automatic Nowcast System),对2012年7月4-5日发生在河南沙澧河流域的大-特大暴雨过程进行SWAN产品特征分析,总结SWAN产品在此次过程短时临近预报、预警中的特征指标,结果表明:(1)1 h降水量30 mm以上站点对应的1 h最大反射率因子97.4%在45 dBz以上,回波顶高84.6%在11 km以上,反射率因子对短时强降水预报的指示意义较强;(2)垂直积分液态含水量(VIL,Vertically Integrated Liquid Water)高值区与1 h降水量10 mm以上降水区有很好的对应关系;(3)定量降水估测(QPE,Quantitative Precipitation Estima-tion)对此次特大暴雨过程30 mm以上1 h降水量有较好的估测能力;(4)定量降水预报(QPF,Quantitative Precipitation Fore-cast)对此次过程1 h降水量30 mm以上的站点预报量级普遍偏小,平均QPF预报误差偏小30 mm;(5)回波移动矢量(CO-TREC风场)指示着未来风暴移动的方向,且1 h强降水中心与COTREC风场辐合区有一定的对应关系.
利用災害性天氣短時臨近預報業務繫統(SWAN,Severe Weather Automatic Nowcast System),對2012年7月4-5日髮生在河南沙澧河流域的大-特大暴雨過程進行SWAN產品特徵分析,總結SWAN產品在此次過程短時臨近預報、預警中的特徵指標,結果錶明:(1)1 h降水量30 mm以上站點對應的1 h最大反射率因子97.4%在45 dBz以上,迴波頂高84.6%在11 km以上,反射率因子對短時彊降水預報的指示意義較彊;(2)垂直積分液態含水量(VIL,Vertically Integrated Liquid Water)高值區與1 h降水量10 mm以上降水區有很好的對應關繫;(3)定量降水估測(QPE,Quantitative Precipitation Estima-tion)對此次特大暴雨過程30 mm以上1 h降水量有較好的估測能力;(4)定量降水預報(QPF,Quantitative Precipitation Fore-cast)對此次過程1 h降水量30 mm以上的站點預報量級普遍偏小,平均QPF預報誤差偏小30 mm;(5)迴波移動矢量(CO-TREC風場)指示著未來風暴移動的方嚮,且1 h彊降水中心與COTREC風場輻閤區有一定的對應關繫.
이용재해성천기단시림근예보업무계통(SWAN,Severe Weather Automatic Nowcast System),대2012년7월4-5일발생재하남사례하류역적대-특대폭우과정진행SWAN산품특정분석,총결SWAN산품재차차과정단시림근예보、예경중적특정지표,결과표명:(1)1 h강수량30 mm이상참점대응적1 h최대반사솔인자97.4%재45 dBz이상,회파정고84.6%재11 km이상,반사솔인자대단시강강수예보적지시의의교강;(2)수직적분액태함수량(VIL,Vertically Integrated Liquid Water)고치구여1 h강수량10 mm이상강수구유흔호적대응관계;(3)정량강수고측(QPE,Quantitative Precipitation Estima-tion)대차차특대폭우과정30 mm이상1 h강수량유교호적고측능력;(4)정량강수예보(QPF,Quantitative Precipitation Fore-cast)대차차과정1 h강수량30 mm이상적참점예보량급보편편소,평균QPF예보오차편소30 mm;(5)회파이동시량(CO-TREC풍장)지시착미래풍폭이동적방향,차1 h강강수중심여COTREC풍장복합구유일정적대응관계.
Using the Severe Weather Automatic Nowcast system (SWAN), SWAN product characteristics are analyzed, and its early warning and forecasting indexes are summarized based on an extremely heavy rain event that took place in the Shali river basin, Henan province dur-ing 4-5, July 2012. The results are as follows. (1) The stations where precipitation exceeds 30 mm h-1 corresponds 97.4%of one-hour maxi-mum reflectivity factor over 45 dBz, and 84.6%of echo top over 11 km. Reflectivity factor is a significant indicator for short-time strong rain-fall forecasting. (2) The area of high vertical integrated liquid water content (VIL) and the area of precipitation over 10 mm h-1 have a great correlation. (3) Quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) has a good skill to evaluate the precipitation over 30 mm h-1. (4) Quantitative pre-cipitation forecast (QPF) often underestimates the precipitation over 30mm h-1, and the average QPF error is smaller than 30 mm. (5) The echo movement vector (COTREC wind field) can denote the storm future movement direction, and the one-hour heavy precipitation center and the echo movement vector convergence zone have some corresponding relationship.
