暴雨灾害
暴雨災害
폭우재해
Torrential Rain and Disasters
2015年
3期
206-214
,共9页
高翠翠%方乐锌%李昀英%寇雄伟
高翠翠%方樂鋅%李昀英%寇雄偉
고취취%방악자%리윤영%구웅위
云%发生频率%持续时数%降水概率
雲%髮生頻率%持續時數%降水概率
운%발생빈솔%지속시수%강수개솔
various cloud types%cloud frequency%duration hour%rainfall probability
基于1985-2011年逐时地面台站观测资料,分析了中国地区不同类型云的发生频率和持续时数的空间分布及其长期变化趋势和季节变化,并统计了不同类型云所伴随的降水概率及降水性质.结果表明,中国地区各类云的发生频率与持续时数的空间分布有较好的一致性.层积云是我国发生频率和持续时数最大的云类,主要分布于四川盆地,在四川盆地其发生频率超过50%,持续时数达20.1 h;雨层云持续时数仅次于层积云,在长江中下游以南其持续时数达12.8 h;卷云、高积云和积云的发生频率及其持续时数的大值区分别位于北方、中部和南方.研究时段内,中国地区总云的发生频率以0.095%/a的速度呈微弱的增加趋势.在云类典型分布区,层积云的发生频率和持续时数在冬半年较大,而积状云在夏季达到峰值;层状云的发生频率在上半年较大,而持续时数在冬半年较大.不同类型云产生降水的概率及对应的降水性质均有差异.层状云单独出现时伴随间歇性或连续性降水,其中雨层云单独出现时伴随降水的概率接近70%;积雨云的降水概率达50.89%,主要伴随阵性和不明类型降水;层积云主要伴随间歇性降水,降水概率约为17%.
基于1985-2011年逐時地麵檯站觀測資料,分析瞭中國地區不同類型雲的髮生頻率和持續時數的空間分佈及其長期變化趨勢和季節變化,併統計瞭不同類型雲所伴隨的降水概率及降水性質.結果錶明,中國地區各類雲的髮生頻率與持續時數的空間分佈有較好的一緻性.層積雲是我國髮生頻率和持續時數最大的雲類,主要分佈于四川盆地,在四川盆地其髮生頻率超過50%,持續時數達20.1 h;雨層雲持續時數僅次于層積雲,在長江中下遊以南其持續時數達12.8 h;捲雲、高積雲和積雲的髮生頻率及其持續時數的大值區分彆位于北方、中部和南方.研究時段內,中國地區總雲的髮生頻率以0.095%/a的速度呈微弱的增加趨勢.在雲類典型分佈區,層積雲的髮生頻率和持續時數在鼕半年較大,而積狀雲在夏季達到峰值;層狀雲的髮生頻率在上半年較大,而持續時數在鼕半年較大.不同類型雲產生降水的概率及對應的降水性質均有差異.層狀雲單獨齣現時伴隨間歇性或連續性降水,其中雨層雲單獨齣現時伴隨降水的概率接近70%;積雨雲的降水概率達50.89%,主要伴隨陣性和不明類型降水;層積雲主要伴隨間歇性降水,降水概率約為17%.
기우1985-2011년축시지면태참관측자료,분석료중국지구불동류형운적발생빈솔화지속시수적공간분포급기장기변화추세화계절변화,병통계료불동류형운소반수적강수개솔급강수성질.결과표명,중국지구각류운적발생빈솔여지속시수적공간분포유교호적일치성.층적운시아국발생빈솔화지속시수최대적운류,주요분포우사천분지,재사천분지기발생빈솔초과50%,지속시수체20.1 h;우층운지속시수부차우층적운,재장강중하유이남기지속시수체12.8 h;권운、고적운화적운적발생빈솔급기지속시수적대치구분별위우북방、중부화남방.연구시단내,중국지구총운적발생빈솔이0.095%/a적속도정미약적증가추세.재운류전형분포구,층적운적발생빈솔화지속시수재동반년교대,이적상운재하계체도봉치;층상운적발생빈솔재상반년교대,이지속시수재동반년교대.불동류형운산생강수적개솔급대응적강수성질균유차이.층상운단독출현시반수간헐성혹련속성강수,기중우층운단독출현시반수강수적개솔접근70%;적우운적강수개솔체50.89%,주요반수진성화불명류형강수;층적운주요반수간헐성강수,강수개솔약위17%.
Based on hourly surface station observations in China from 1985 to 2011, the spatial distribution, annual and seasonal variations of occurrence frequency and duration hour of various cloud types were analyzed. In addition, the rainfall probabilities and precipitation prop-erties accompanying with eight cloud types were also calculated. The results indicate that the distribution patterns of cloud frequencies and duration hours are similar to each other among different regions in China. Both of the occurrence frequency and duration hour of stratocumu-lus are the largest among eight cloud types. It mainly occurs over Sichuan Basin, where the occurrence frequency of stratocumulus exceeds 50%, and its duration hour reaches 20.1 hours. Compared to stratocumulus, the duration hour of nimbostratus is slightly shorter, and it comes up to 12.8 hours in the south of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The centers of the maximum occurrence frequencies and duration hours of cirrus, altostratus and cumulus are located in northern, middle, and southern China, respectively. There is a weak increase of 0.095%/a for annual mean cloud occurrence frequency in China from 1985 to 2011. In the typical region of various cloud types, stratocumulus occurs more frequently and persists longer in cold seasons compared to warm seasons, while the reverse phase is found on cumulus clouds. The occurrence frequency of stratiform clouds is larger in the first half of the year, while their duration hour are longer in cold seasons. When different cloud types appear alone, their rainfall probabilities and precipitation properties are different. When nimbostratus, altostratus or stra-tus appear alone, they correspond to intermittent or continuous rainfall. The rainfall probability approaches 70%when nimbostratus occurs alone. The rainfall probability of cumulonimbus reaches 50.89%, and it mainly associates with showery or unknown precipitation. When stra-tocumulus appears alone, it corresponds to intermittent rainfall, with the rainfall probability about 17%.