暴雨灾害
暴雨災害
폭우재해
Torrential Rain and Disasters
2015年
3期
286-292
,共7页
雷暴%闪电定位%人工观测%一致性%江淮地区
雷暴%閃電定位%人工觀測%一緻性%江淮地區
뇌폭%섬전정위%인공관측%일치성%강회지구
thunderstorm%lightning location%manual observation%consistency%Jianghuai region
选取距离测站不同半径、不同闪电记录代表闪电定位系统对测站雷暴的监测,采用TS评分和KSS''评分标准,对江淮地区(111°-122°E,28°-35°N)近4年(2010年1月-2013年12月)闪电定位系统的雷暴监测与人工雷暴观测的一致性进行对比.结果表明:江淮地区南部(34°N以南)和东部(114°E以东)两种资料的一致性好于其西部(114°E以西)和北部(34°N以北).在江淮地区选取半径13~14 km范围内大于等于2条闪电记录代表测站雷暴,二者的一致性最好,此时TS技巧评分可达55%,命中率接近80%,空报率32%~34%.若考虑雷电造成的危害较大,追求更高的命中率,则选取半径12 km范围内大于等于1条闪电记录代表测站雷暴,其命中率可达83%,但同时空报率也将提高.因此,可根据当地雷电灾害损失及其防范成本,选取适合当地的半径范围闪电定位系统的闪电记录代表测站开展雷电警报业务.
選取距離測站不同半徑、不同閃電記錄代錶閃電定位繫統對測站雷暴的鑑測,採用TS評分和KSS''評分標準,對江淮地區(111°-122°E,28°-35°N)近4年(2010年1月-2013年12月)閃電定位繫統的雷暴鑑測與人工雷暴觀測的一緻性進行對比.結果錶明:江淮地區南部(34°N以南)和東部(114°E以東)兩種資料的一緻性好于其西部(114°E以西)和北部(34°N以北).在江淮地區選取半徑13~14 km範圍內大于等于2條閃電記錄代錶測站雷暴,二者的一緻性最好,此時TS技巧評分可達55%,命中率接近80%,空報率32%~34%.若攷慮雷電造成的危害較大,追求更高的命中率,則選取半徑12 km範圍內大于等于1條閃電記錄代錶測站雷暴,其命中率可達83%,但同時空報率也將提高.因此,可根據噹地雷電災害損失及其防範成本,選取適閤噹地的半徑範圍閃電定位繫統的閃電記錄代錶測站開展雷電警報業務.
선취거리측참불동반경、불동섬전기록대표섬전정위계통대측참뇌폭적감측,채용TS평분화KSS''평분표준,대강회지구(111°-122°E,28°-35°N)근4년(2010년1월-2013년12월)섬전정위계통적뇌폭감측여인공뇌폭관측적일치성진행대비.결과표명:강회지구남부(34°N이남)화동부(114°E이동)량충자료적일치성호우기서부(114°E이서)화북부(34°N이북).재강회지구선취반경13~14 km범위내대우등우2조섬전기록대표측참뇌폭,이자적일치성최호,차시TS기교평분가체55%,명중솔접근80%,공보솔32%~34%.약고필뇌전조성적위해교대,추구경고적명중솔,칙선취반경12 km범위내대우등우1조섬전기록대표측참뇌폭,기명중솔가체83%,단동시공보솔야장제고.인차,가근거당지뇌전재해손실급기방범성본,선취괄합당지적반경범위섬전정위계통적섬전기록대표측참개전뇌전경보업무.
The consistency of thunderstorm detection is analyzed between using lightning data from lightning location network and manual thunderstorm observations in the recent 4 years (from January 2010 to December 2013) in the Jianghuai region (111°-122° E, 28°-35° N) based on Threat Score (TS) and Hanssen-Kuiper Skill Score (KSS''). Results are as follows. The consistency between lightning data and manual thunderstorm observations in the south (<34°N) and east (>114°E) of Jianghuai region is better than that in the west (<114°E) and north (>34°N) of Jianghuai region. The consistency is the best when choosing more than 2 lightning records in a region within 13-14 km from the sta-tion to represent station''s thunderstorm occurrence. Under such condition, TS is up to 55%, with probability of detection of near 80%and false detection ratio of 32%-34%. For a better probability of detection given the enormous damage of lightning, if choosing more than 1 lightning record in a region within 12 km from the station to represent station''s thunderstorm occurrence, the probability of detection is up to 83%, but the false detection ratio will increase, too. So, number of lightning records and radii from station can be chosen based on considerations of lo-cal lightning damage and cost to prevent that.
