人民黄河
人民黃河
인민황하
Yellow River
2015年
10期
21-24,28
,共5页
多变量时间序列模型%敏感性%气候变化%径流%呼图壁河流域
多變量時間序列模型%敏感性%氣候變化%徑流%呼圖壁河流域
다변량시간서렬모형%민감성%기후변화%경류%호도벽하류역
multivariate time series models%sensitivity%climate change%runoff%Hutubi River basin
为了预测干旱地区径流对气候变化的敏感性，选取天山北坡中段的呼图壁河流域，根据1978—2011年的气象数据和径流数据，建立了径流与气温、降水的多变量时间序列模型，并设置不同的情景方案对径流对气候的敏感性进行了分析。结果表明：呼图壁河径流主要受降水和气温的影响，径流对降水的敏感性比对气温的高。
為瞭預測榦旱地區徑流對氣候變化的敏感性，選取天山北坡中段的呼圖壁河流域，根據1978—2011年的氣象數據和徑流數據，建立瞭徑流與氣溫、降水的多變量時間序列模型，併設置不同的情景方案對徑流對氣候的敏感性進行瞭分析。結果錶明：呼圖壁河徑流主要受降水和氣溫的影響，徑流對降水的敏感性比對氣溫的高。
위료예측간한지구경류대기후변화적민감성，선취천산북파중단적호도벽하류역，근거1978—2011년적기상수거화경류수거，건립료경류여기온、강수적다변량시간서렬모형，병설치불동적정경방안대경류대기후적민감성진행료분석。결과표명：호도벽하경류주요수강수화기온적영향，경류대강수적민감성비대기온적고。
In order to predict the sensitivity of the runoff to the climate change in arid regions,this paper selected Hutubi River basin,a river in the mid section of the north slope of Tianshan Mountain. Based on the meteorological and runoff data of 1978-2011,its change trend was analyzed and multivariate time series model was established. The paper also set up different scenarios to analyze the sensitivity of the runoff to the climate. The results show that Hutubi River runoff is mainly influenced by rainfall and temperature,but the sensitivity of runoff to the precipitation is much higher than that of the temperature.
