CAJ | 학술논문

以浙江历史上遭受的台风经济损失为背景，虚拟了一个以月份变化和不同登陆情况为基础的台风动态风险案例，用源于概率风险模型的动态风险分析模型，并采用正态扩散方法处理虚拟案例数据，对其进行了分析。主要工作是估计不同月份条件下台风强度的概率分布，估计风险承受体在不同强度的台风和不同登陆情况下的损失，并由条件概率分布和损失矩阵耦合成期望值意义上的动态风险。非动态风险分析只能给出年内单一风险值，而动态风险分析能提供更多的信息。讨论概率风险的系统误差问题，以及智联网用于动态风险分析的问题。
이절강역사상조수적태풍경제손실위배경，허의료일개이월빈변화화불동등륙정황위기출적태풍동태풍험안례，용원우개솔풍험모형적동태풍험분석모형，병채용정태확산방법처리허의안례수거，대기진행료분석。주요공작시고계불동월빈조건하태풍강도적개솔분포，고계풍험승수체재불동강도적태풍화불동등륙정황하적손실，병유조건개솔분포화손실구진우합성기망치의의상적동태풍험。비동태풍험분석지능급출년내단일풍험치，이동태풍험분석능제공경다적신식。토론개솔풍험적계통오차문제，이급지련망용우동태풍험분석적문제。
In this paper,with the economic loss caused by typhoons occurred in Zhejiang,China,as the background,a virtual case of typhoon dynamic risk is given,in which the time and landing sites of the typhoons are different.Employed a model for dynamic risk analysis derived from a probabilistic risk model,and using the normal diffusion method to process data,we study the case.The main works in the study are to estimate a probability dis-tribution of typhoon strength under conditions of different months,and to estimate loss of a risk-bearing body with respect to different strength typhoons and different landing situations.Then,coupling of the conditional probability distribution and the loss matrix,we calculate the dynamic risk in sense of expected loss.Non-dynamic risk analysis can only give a single risk value during the year,while the dynamic risk analysis can provide more information. This paper also discusses the system error of probability risks,and suggests exploring the Internet of intelligences for dynamic risk analysis.