CAJ | 학술논문

自然灾害损失评价涉及人口、农业、房屋、经济等多项灾情指标，是典型的多元指标综合分析问题。如何设计合理的定量化评价指数，对灾害风险管理、损失评估和相关政策制定，具有重要意义。现有灾情评价方法和灾情指数，或对量纲差异较大的灾情指标敏感，或无法同时对不同区域的灾情时空分布进行比较，缺少综合性、兼顾时空分布的评价方法。针对上述问题，提出了一种新的基于几何平均的综合灾情指数计算方法。相较现有方法，该文提出的指数可同时在时间和空间两个维度对给定区域的灾害损失进行定量化的评价，且对指标分布偏倚的多元灾损数据不敏感。在2014年我国分省洪涝（含地质灾害）损失数据上的计算结果验证了新指数的有效性。
자연재해손실평개섭급인구、농업、방옥、경제등다항재정지표，시전형적다원지표종합분석문제。여하설계합리적정양화평개지수，대재해풍험관리、손실평고화상관정책제정，구유중요의의。현유재정평개방법화재정지수，혹대량강차이교대적재정지표민감，혹무법동시대불동구역적재정시공분포진행비교，결소종합성、겸고시공분포적평개방법。침대상술문제，제출료일충신적기우궤하평균적종합재정지수계산방법。상교현유방법，해문제출적지수가동시재시간화공간량개유도대급정구역적재해손실진행정양화적평개，차대지표분포편의적다원재손수거불민감。재2014년아국분성홍로（함지질재해）손실수거상적계산결과험증료신지수적유효성。
Assessments of natural disaster losses are related to various aspects,such as population,crops, houses,and economics,which are typical multi-variant analysis issues.How to design an overall and reasonable assessing index is of crucial importance to disaster risk management,loss assessment and policy making.Current approaches are either sensitive to data of biased measurements or not applicable to simultaneously temporal-special comparisons.In this paper,we propose a new computational model of natural disaster index (NDI)based on geo-metric means.Compared with state-of-the-art,the proposed one can assess the losses of a region quantitatively a-long time and space at the same time,and it is robust to multi-variant data which has biased distributions of meas-urements.Simulations conduced on the real loss data of the 201 3 floods in China validate the effectiveness of the proposed NDI method.