CAJ | 학술논문

应用山西1958-2013年38个站点的逐月降水资料和南方涛动指数（SOI），采用线性趋势及相关分析法研究了山西旱涝对 ENSO 事件的响应，结果如下所示。近56年来，EI Nino 和 La Nina 事件各发生13次；有76.9％的La Nina 事件和61.5％的 EI Nino 事件在冬季达到最强；ENSO 事件具有2～7年的周期特征。山西旱涝对 EI Nino 的响应相对明显，EI Nino 年，旱年多，EI Nino 次年，涝年多，所占年份比例均为41.2％；春季旱涝对 EI Nino（次年春季旱涝对 La Nina）的响应相对显著，EI Nino 年，春涝多，La Nina 次年，春旱多，所占比例均为52.9％；夏季旱涝对 EI Nino（次年夏季旱涝对 La Nina）的响应相对显著，EI Nino 年，夏旱多，La Nina 次年，夏涝多，所占比例分别为47.1％和41.2％；秋季旱涝对 ENSO 的响应相对显著，La Nina 年，秋涝多，EI Nino 年，秋旱多，所占比例分别为43.5％和47.1％；ENSO 事件对次年冬季旱涝等级的反映明显，La Nina 次年，冬涝多，EI Nino 次年，冬旱多，所占比例分别为43.4％和41.2％。SOI 与同期旱涝指数的相关系数全省为正值且北大南小，SOI 正值，北部降水偏多，SOI 负值，北部降水偏少；SOI 与滞后1个月旱涝指数的相关系数除西北局部外全省均为正值，大值区位于北中部，SOI 正值，次月北中部降水易偏多，SOI 为负值，次月北中部降水易偏少；SOI 与滞后2个月的旱涝指数的相关系数全省为正相关，分布为西大东小，SOI 正值，未来第2个月西部降水易偏多，SOI 负值，未来第2个月西部降水易偏少；SOI 与滞后3个月的旱涝指数的相关系数不同区域对 SOI 的响应不同，相关系数在-0.43～0.33，正相关大值区位于中南部广大地区，负相关大值区位于北部局部地区。
응용산서1958-2013년38개참점적축월강수자료화남방도동지수（SOI），채용선성추세급상관분석법연구료산서한로대 ENSO 사건적향응，결과여하소시。근56년래，EI Nino 화 La Nina 사건각발생13차；유76.9％적La Nina 사건화61.5％적 EI Nino 사건재동계체도최강；ENSO 사건구유2～7년적주기특정。산서한로대 EI Nino 적향응상대명현，EI Nino 년，한년다，EI Nino 차년，로년다，소점년빈비례균위41.2％；춘계한로대 EI Nino（차년춘계한로대 La Nina）적향응상대현저，EI Nino 년，춘로다，La Nina 차년，춘한다，소점비례균위52.9％；하계한로대 EI Nino（차년하계한로대 La Nina）적향응상대현저，EI Nino 년，하한다，La Nina 차년，하로다，소점비례분별위47.1％화41.2％；추계한로대 ENSO 적향응상대현저，La Nina 년，추로다，EI Nino 년，추한다，소점비례분별위43.5％화47.1％；ENSO 사건대차년동계한로등급적반영명현，La Nina 차년，동로다，EI Nino 차년，동한다，소점비례분별위43.4％화41.2％。SOI 여동기한로지수적상관계수전성위정치차북대남소，SOI 정치，북부강수편다，SOI 부치，북부강수편소；SOI 여체후1개월한로지수적상관계수제서북국부외전성균위정치，대치구위우북중부，SOI 정치，차월북중부강수역편다，SOI 위부치，차월북중부강수역편소；SOI 여체후2개월적한로지수적상관계수전성위정상관，분포위서대동소，SOI 정치，미래제2개월서부강수역편다，SOI 부치，미래제2개월서부강수역편소；SOI 여체후3개월적한로지수적상관계수불동구역대 SOI 적향응불동，상관계수재-0.43～0.33，정상관대치구위우중남부엄대지구，부상관대치구위우북부국부지구。
Based on each month’s rainfall data of 38 meteorological stations in Shanxi Qrovince from 1 958 to 201 3 and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)from 1 958 to 201 3,using trend analysis and correlation analysis methods,the response of Shanxi’s droughts &floods to ENSO events is analyzed.The results show:(1 )In recent 56 years,there were 1 3 EI Nino events and 1 3 La Nina events.The strongest ENSO events appear usually at winter (76.9% La Nina events and 61 .5% EI Nino events).ENSO events have obvious cycles,fluctuating from 2 to 7 years.(2)Shanxi’s droughts &floods have clear responses to ENSO events.In EI Nino year,drought frequency (41 .2%)is higher than flood frequency.In the year after EI Nino,flood frequency (41 .2%)is higher than drought frequency.In EI Nino year,spring flood frequency (52.9%)is higher than drought frequency.In the year after La Nina,spring drought frequency (52.9%)is higher than flood frequency.In EI Nino year,summer drought frequency (47.1 %)is higher than flood frequency.In the year after La Nina,summer flood frequency (41 .2%)is higher than drought frequency.In La Nina year,autumn flood frequency (43.5%)is higher than drought frequency.In EI Nino year,autumn drought frequency (47.1 %)is higher than flood frequency.In the year after La Nina,winter flood frequency (43.4%)is higher than drought frequency.In the year after EI Nino, winter drought frequency (41 .2%)is higher than flood frequency.(3)Through correlation analysis of SOI with drought &flood index,we find that correlation coefficients of SOI with the same period drought &flood index over Shanxi province are positive (coefficients of the north are bigger than the south),if SOI is positive (negative), rainfall of the north has the trend of being more (less).SOI has positive correlation with the drought &flood index one month later over most areas of Shanxi province except in local areas of the northwest region (high value area is located in north central),if SOI is positive (negative),next mouth’s rainfall of the north central has the trend of being more (less).SOI has positive correlation with the drought &flood index two months later over Shanxi prov-ince (coefficients of the west are bigger than the east),if SOI is positive (negative),next second mouth’s rainfall of the west has the trend of being more (less).The correlation coefficients of SOI with the drought &flood index three months later are different in various regions;the range is from -0.43 to 0.33 (high positive value area is lo-cated in south central,high negative value appears in local area of north).