灾害学
災害學
재해학
Journal of Catastrophology
2015年
4期
194-201
,共8页
风暴潮灾害%耕地淹没%农业损失%珠江三角洲
風暴潮災害%耕地淹沒%農業損失%珠江三角洲
풍폭조재해%경지엄몰%농업손실%주강삼각주
storm surge disaster%submerged arable land%agricultural loss%the Qearl River Delta
在借鉴相关经验的基础上建立风暴潮增水农业产量损失评估模型,选择广东省珠江三角洲地区为研究区域,以该地区的 DEM、土地利用等数据为基础,通过实地调研获取当地的作物种植结构、轮作方式、作物单产、不同淹没高度下不同作物的损失率等数据资料,并以2010年为例,估算并分析了不同风暴潮增水情景下珠三角地区耕地受灾空间分布特征及农业产量损失情况。结果表明,低估计情况下研究区耕地风暴潮淹没总面积占耕地总面积3.61%,高估计时该比重增加到5.47%,其中广州、江门、珠海、汕尾、惠州、佛山等地市受风暴潮影响耕地淹没情况较为严重;且随风暴潮灾害的加剧,多地市淹没高度在最大值150 cm 以上的耕地淹没面积增加显著。从耕地淹没造成的农业产量损失来看,蔬菜的损失产量普遍较高,其次是稻谷,花生受灾害影响较小。其中蔬菜灾损最严重的为广州,稻谷损失最严重的为江门。本文较为细致地刻画了珠三角地区海平面上升及风暴潮增水灾害对农业的影响,以期为珠江三角洲地区作物种植布局、生产以及防灾减灾提供定量和定位的科学依据。
在藉鑒相關經驗的基礎上建立風暴潮增水農業產量損失評估模型,選擇廣東省珠江三角洲地區為研究區域,以該地區的 DEM、土地利用等數據為基礎,通過實地調研穫取噹地的作物種植結構、輪作方式、作物單產、不同淹沒高度下不同作物的損失率等數據資料,併以2010年為例,估算併分析瞭不同風暴潮增水情景下珠三角地區耕地受災空間分佈特徵及農業產量損失情況。結果錶明,低估計情況下研究區耕地風暴潮淹沒總麵積佔耕地總麵積3.61%,高估計時該比重增加到5.47%,其中廣州、江門、珠海、汕尾、惠州、彿山等地市受風暴潮影響耕地淹沒情況較為嚴重;且隨風暴潮災害的加劇,多地市淹沒高度在最大值150 cm 以上的耕地淹沒麵積增加顯著。從耕地淹沒造成的農業產量損失來看,蔬菜的損失產量普遍較高,其次是稻穀,花生受災害影響較小。其中蔬菜災損最嚴重的為廣州,稻穀損失最嚴重的為江門。本文較為細緻地刻畫瞭珠三角地區海平麵上升及風暴潮增水災害對農業的影響,以期為珠江三角洲地區作物種植佈跼、生產以及防災減災提供定量和定位的科學依據。
재차감상관경험적기출상건립풍폭조증수농업산량손실평고모형,선택광동성주강삼각주지구위연구구역,이해지구적 DEM、토지이용등수거위기출,통과실지조연획취당지적작물충식결구、륜작방식、작물단산、불동엄몰고도하불동작물적손실솔등수거자료,병이2010년위례,고산병분석료불동풍폭조증수정경하주삼각지구경지수재공간분포특정급농업산량손실정황。결과표명,저고계정황하연구구경지풍폭조엄몰총면적점경지총면적3.61%,고고계시해비중증가도5.47%,기중엄주、강문、주해、산미、혜주、불산등지시수풍폭조영향경지엄몰정황교위엄중;차수풍폭조재해적가극,다지시엄몰고도재최대치150 cm 이상적경지엄몰면적증가현저。종경지엄몰조성적농업산량손실래간,소채적손실산량보편교고,기차시도곡,화생수재해영향교소。기중소채재손최엄중적위엄주,도곡손실최엄중적위강문。본문교위세치지각화료주삼각지구해평면상승급풍폭조증수재해대농업적영향,이기위주강삼각주지구작물충식포국、생산이급방재감재제공정량화정위적과학의거。
Based on the current research and relevant experience,the evaluation model of yield losses caused by sea level rise and storm surge is established.We take the Qearl River Delta in Guangdong Qrovince as study are-a,based on the DEMand land-use data,and obtained the local crop planting structure,crop rotation pattern,crop yields and loss rate of different crops under different flood height,to estimate and analyze spatial distribution char-acteristics of agriculture disaster and production losses in the Qearl River Delta area affected by sea level rise and storm surge in 201 0.The results show that under low estimation the total area of arable land flooded by storm surge accounted for 3.61 % of total region and increased to 5.47% at high estimation.Guangzhou,Jiangmen,Zhuhai, Shanwei,Huizhou,Foshan are cities where the arable land inundated is more serious.Moreover,with the storm surge disaster increasing,the arable land of which the submerged height is over 1 50cm in many cities increased sig-nificantly.From the perspective of the agricultural production losses,the yield loss of vegetables is generally high, followed by rice and peanut was less affected by the disaster.The loss of vegetables is severest in Guangzhou and that of rice is severest in Jiangmen.In this paper,the influence of disaster to agriculture caused by sea level rise and storm surge in the Qearl River Delta is described more detailed,in order to provide the scientific quantitative and location basis for crop planting pattern and production and disaster prevention and relief.