CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用动态 CGE 模型———MCHUGE模型仿真分析了在农业部门生产环节开征碳税对中国农村经济的影响程度。研究结果表明：在农业部门生产环节开征碳税对降低单位GDP能耗，减少CO2排放能起到良好的节能减排效果，但对宏观经济和农业各个产业部门资本收益率、产出水平及就业水平会带来较大的负面冲击。除家畜肉类(猪肉除外)加工业之外，农业温室气体开征碳税对农业各产业资本收益率的影响均呈负向偏离，不利于农户增收和资本积累；除了家畜肉类(猪肉除外)加工业、服装业和皮革制品业等部门产出水平呈正向偏离外，其他产业产出水平均呈现不同程度的负向偏离。受资本收益率和产业产出下降影响，农业部门就业水平也出现相应的负向偏离。
본문이용동태 CGE 모형———MCHUGE모형방진분석료재농업부문생산배절개정탄세대중국농촌경제적영향정도。연구결과표명：재농업부문생산배절개정탄세대강저단위GDP능모，감소CO2배방능기도량호적절능감배효과，단대굉관경제화농업각개산업부문자본수익솔、산출수평급취업수평회대래교대적부면충격。제가축육류(저육제외)가공업지외，농업온실기체개정탄세대농업각산업자본수익솔적영향균정부향편리，불리우농호증수화자본적루；제료가축육류(저육제외)가공업、복장업화피혁제품업등부문산출수평정정향편리외，기타산업산출수평균정현불동정도적부향편리。수자본수익솔화산업산출하강영향，농업부문취업수평야출현상응적부향편리。
This paper uses a dynamic CGE model-MCHUGE model-to simulate and analyze the impact of carbon tax that collected on production processes of agricultural sectoron the rural economy in China. The results are as follows. A carbon tax on production processes of agricultural sector effectively reduced energy consumption per unit of GDP and CO2 emissions, considerably contributing to energy conservation. But it also brings greater negative impacts on macro-economic,return on capital of various agricultural sectors,output level and employment level. Except for livestock meat (pork not included) processing industry,imposing carbon tax on agricultural greenhouse gas has a negative impact on ROE of various agricultural sectors and is not conducive to increase farmers revenue and accumulate capital . Apart from industries such as livestock meat (pork not included) processing industry,the clothing industry and leather products industry’s outputs are shown to be a positive deviation. Other industries outputs show negative deviations in different degrees. Influenced by the fall in return on capital and industrial output,the level of employment in the agricultural sector is also a corresponding negative deviation.