CAJ | 학술논문

新能源汽车各项技术的成熟度存在较大差异，导致业界对产业发展方向的定位不甚清晰。本文按照情景分析、专利分析以及TRIZ技术进化路线分析所构成的技术分析及其技术预见流程，对中国新能源汽车行业的市场需求、产业发展目标和研发基础进行定性的情景分析；利用技术专利地图，对中国的混合动力汽车、纯电动汽车和燃料电池汽车这三种主要类型新能源汽车的专利技术信息进行分析。在此基础上，根据TRIZ技术进化理论，预见新能源汽车的技术进化路径，得出中国新能源汽车产业关键技术以及预期的实现时间。
신능원기차각항기술적성숙도존재교대차이，도치업계대산업발전방향적정위불심청석。본문안조정경분석、전리분석이급TRIZ기술진화로선분석소구성적기술분석급기기술예견류정，대중국신능원기차행업적시장수구、산업발전목표화연발기출진행정성적정경분석；이용기술전리지도，대중국적혼합동력기차、순전동기차화연료전지기차저삼충주요류형신능원기차적전리기술신식진행분석。재차기출상，근거TRIZ기술진화이론，예견신능원기차적기술진화로경，득출중국신능원기차산업관건기술이급예기적실현시간。
The big difference between the maturity of all kinds of new energy vehicles technologies results in the ambiguity of industrial development orientation. According to the technical analysis and technology foresight process of scenario analysis,patent analysis and TRIZ technology evolution path analysis,this paper makes a qualitative scenario analysis on the market demand, industrial development goals and R & D infrastructure of new energy vehicles industry. Then,it makes analysis on patented technology information of hybrid vehicles,pure electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles. Based on these analysis,the paper makes a foresight on new energy vehicle technology evolution path by using TRIZ technical evolution theory, which exports our new energy vehicle industrial key technologies and their expected achievement time.