CAJ | 학술논문

总结分析了目前用于定量预测LNG储罐区个人风险和泄漏后果的主要计算模型，对LNG储罐区的个人风险及泄漏后果进行了定量评估。绘制了LNG储罐区的个人风险等值线以及泄漏可能造成的事故后果图，深入分析了LNG储罐的个人风险对周边用地规划的影响以及泄漏模式、灾害模式、多米诺效应的阈值距离对LNG储罐泄漏事故的影响。结果表明：LNG储罐区的个人风险等值线将LNG储罐区周围划分了两个区域1×10－6／年的个人风险等值线区域和3×10－7／年的个人风险等值线区域；同一泄漏模式下发生不同的灾害模式所造成的影响范围不同，不同泄漏模式下同一灾害模式所造成的事故影响范围也不同；不同事故场景下多米诺效应的阈值距离不同。为大型LNG储罐区的选址及其周边的土地利用规划提供了参考，有利于LNG罐区的管理和事故预防。
총결분석료목전용우정량예측LNG저관구개인풍험화설루후과적주요계산모형，대LNG저관구적개인풍험급설루후과진행료정량평고。회제료LNG저관구적개인풍험등치선이급설루가능조성적사고후과도，심입분석료LNG저관적개인풍험대주변용지규화적영향이급설루모식、재해모식、다미낙효응적역치거리대LNG저관설루사고적영향。결과표명：LNG저관구적개인풍험등치선장LNG저관구주위화분료량개구역1×10－6／년적개인풍험등치선구역화3×10－7／년적개인풍험등치선구역；동일설루모식하발생불동적재해모식소조성적영향범위불동，불동설루모식하동일재해모식소조성적사고영향범위야불동；불동사고장경하다미낙효응적역치거리불동。위대형LNG저관구적선지급기주변적토지이용규화제공료삼고，유리우LNG관구적관리화사고예방。
This paper summarizes and analyzes the main numerical model presently applied in the quantitative forecast of the individual risk and leakage consequences of LNG storage area .The Contour lines of the individual risk and the consequences graphs are drawn .It is deeply analyzed the effects of LNG storage tank individual risk on the neighboring land planning ,as well as effects of leakage and disaster modes ,threshold distance of Domino effect on LNG tank leakage .The results show that the land in the neighborhood of the LNG storage tank field can be divided into two zones ,one is the individual risk level above 3 × 10-7 per year zone and the other is individual risk level above 1 × 10-6 per year zone .The numerical simulation is also applied to analyze the possible accident consequences of LNG storage tank leakage .By the application ,the consequences graph can be drawn and the influence range of tank leakage can be clearly shown .It can provide references for operating managers to completely understand the risk status of the tank field .