西北水电
西北水電
서북수전
Northwest Water Power
2015年
5期
11-15,20
,共6页
气候变化%人类活动%径流量%贡献率%开都河%焉耆盆地
氣候變化%人類活動%徑流量%貢獻率%開都河%焉耆盆地
기후변화%인류활동%경류량%공헌솔%개도하%언기분지
climate change%human activity%runoff volume%contribution ratio%Kaidu River%Yanqi basin
开都河是新疆焉耆盆地内的重要河流，对维持焉耆盆地水土生态平衡具有极其重要的作用。近年来，开都河流域的水资源问题已经引发了较为严重的生态环境问题。根据流域内1960—2011年水文气象数据，采用小波分析法、累积距平法、累积量斜率变化率法，对开都河上游径流量和气候变化特征及趋势进行了分析，并定量评估了气候变化和人类活动对径流量变化的影响。结果表明：年降水量、蒸散发量和径流量总体均呈增加趋势；径流量的增加变幅为1．93亿 m 3／（10 a），具有16 a 和28 a 的准周期变化，且在1995年前后发生了突变；气候变化对开都河上游径流增加的贡献率达100％，人类活动对径流基本无扰动。
開都河是新疆焉耆盆地內的重要河流，對維持焉耆盆地水土生態平衡具有極其重要的作用。近年來，開都河流域的水資源問題已經引髮瞭較為嚴重的生態環境問題。根據流域內1960—2011年水文氣象數據，採用小波分析法、纍積距平法、纍積量斜率變化率法，對開都河上遊徑流量和氣候變化特徵及趨勢進行瞭分析，併定量評估瞭氣候變化和人類活動對徑流量變化的影響。結果錶明：年降水量、蒸散髮量和徑流量總體均呈增加趨勢；徑流量的增加變幅為1．93億 m 3／（10 a），具有16 a 和28 a 的準週期變化，且在1995年前後髮生瞭突變；氣候變化對開都河上遊徑流增加的貢獻率達100％，人類活動對徑流基本無擾動。
개도하시신강언기분지내적중요하류，대유지언기분지수토생태평형구유겁기중요적작용。근년래，개도하류역적수자원문제이경인발료교위엄중적생태배경문제。근거류역내1960—2011년수문기상수거，채용소파분석법、루적거평법、루적량사솔변화솔법，대개도하상유경류량화기후변화특정급추세진행료분석，병정량평고료기후변화화인류활동대경류량변화적영향。결과표명：년강수량、증산발량화경류량총체균정증가추세；경류량적증가변폭위1．93억 m 3／（10 a），구유16 a 화28 a 적준주기변화，차재1995년전후발생료돌변；기후변화대개도하상유경류증가적공헌솔체100％，인류활동대경류기본무우동。
The Kaidu River is an important one in the Yanqi basin.It plays an important role in maintaining the ecological balance of water and soil in the basin.In recent years, issues on the water resources in the Kaidu River catchment has caused quite serious ecological and en-vironmental issues.Based on the hydrological and meteorological data of the catchment in 1960-2011, the runoff volume, the climate change features and trends at the upstream of the Kaidu River are analyzed by application of wavelet analysis method, cumulative anomaly method and change ratio of cumulative slope.And influences on the runoff by the climate change and human activities are assessed quantitatively as well.The study and analysis show that the annual precipitation, evaporation/dissipation and runoff generally is increasing in trend.The in-crease range of the runoff is 193 million m 3 /(10 a) with the paracycle variation of 16 a and 28 a.Furthermore, it abruptly changed around 1995.The contribution rate of the climate change to the runoff increase at the upstream of the Kaidu River is 100%.The human activities rarely disturbs the runoff.
