CAJ | 학술논문

利用1994-2013年UN COMTRADE数据库数据研究中国-新西兰自由贸易区建立前后两国羊毛进出口贸易格局的变化，并使用巴拉萨模型通过测算中国与新西兰羊毛进出口需求弹性的变化进一步检验自贸区的建立对中新羊毛贸易的影响。研究结果表明：自贸区的建立使得中新两国双边羊毛进出口总量大幅增加；中国自新西兰的羊毛进口总量在自贸区建立之后扭转了之前波动下降的局面，出现了较为显著的增长；自贸区建立之前，中国仅在少数几个年份对新西兰有羊毛出口，自贸区的建立在一定程度上扩大了中国对新西兰的羊毛出口；巴拉萨模型的估计结果同样表明自贸区的建立促进了中国自新西兰的羊毛（原毛和洗净毛）进口，也推动了中国对新西兰的毛条出口。最后基于以上研究结论，文章提出了相应的政策建议。
이용1994-2013년UN COMTRADE수거고수거연구중국-신서란자유무역구건립전후량국양모진출구무역격국적변화，병사용파랍살모형통과측산중국여신서란양모진출구수구탄성적변화진일보검험자무구적건립대중신양모무역적영향。연구결과표명：자무구적건립사득중신량국쌍변양모진출구총량대폭증가；중국자신서란적양모진구총량재자무구건립지후뉴전료지전파동하강적국면，출현료교위현저적증장；자무구건립지전，중국부재소수궤개년빈대신서란유양모출구，자무구적건립재일정정도상확대료중국대신서란적양모출구；파랍살모형적고계결과동양표명자무구적건립촉진료중국자신서란적양모（원모화세정모）진구，야추동료중국대신서란적모조출구。최후기우이상연구결론，문장제출료상응적정책건의。
Based on the UN COMTRADE data from 1994 to 2013, this paper studies the changes of the trade pattern of wool import and export between China and New Zealand, and uses the Balassa model to further examine the impact of the establishment of FTA on China and New Zealand wool trade. The results show that the establishment of the FTA reverses the decline in wool trade volume before and makes the bilateral wool trade volume increased significantly after the establishment of FTA; also the establishment of FTA expands China's wool exportation to New Zealand while that exists only a few years formerly. Balassa model’s results also show that the establishment of the FTA promotes China’s wool (raw wool and clean wool) importation from New Zealand and China's top wool exportation to New Zealand.