CAJ | 학술논문

为考察货币政策冲击对通货膨胀的影响方向和大小，本文首先在动态随机一般均衡框架内构建企业的营运资本模型，货币政策通过改变企业营运资本的融资成本进而影响物价变动。理论模型的数值模拟显示，货币政策冲击导致通货膨胀变化的大小和特征取决于价格与通胀率粘性系数。进而利用符号约束SVAR模型对中国宏观经济数据进行了计量分析，经验研究发现我国商品价格粘性较强，利率上调的紧缩性货币政策可能导致物价的上升；通货膨胀形成机制中包含了较强的预期成分，货币扩张冲击产生的通货膨胀效应时间提前且反应程度较大。
위고찰화폐정책충격대통화팽창적영향방향화대소，본문수선재동태수궤일반균형광가내구건기업적영운자본모형，화폐정책통과개변기업영운자본적융자성본진이영향물개변동。이론모형적수치모의현시，화폐정책충격도치통화팽창변화적대소화특정취결우개격여통창솔점성계수。진이이용부호약속SVAR모형대중국굉관경제수거진행료계량분석，경험연구발현아국상품개격점성교강，리솔상조적긴축성화폐정책가능도치물개적상승；통화팽창형성궤제중포함료교강적예기성분，화폐확장충격산생적통화팽창효응시간제전차반응정도교대。
To investigate the direction and magnitude of the impact of monetary policy on inflation, this paper firstly build the working capital model under the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. The monetary poli-cy causes the change of price through affecting the working capital financing costs. The numerical simulation of the the-oretical model shows that due to the monetary policy shock, the size and characteristics of inflation depends on the stickiness coefficient of price and the inflation rate. The paper then uses the SVAR model constrained by signs to do an econometric analysis on China’s macroeconomic data. The empirical research finds that China’s commodity price shows a stronger degree of stickiness,the tightened monetary with rising interest rates may lead to the increase in pric-es. Inflation formation mechanism includes the component of stronger expectations. Inflationary impact of the monetary expansion was generated earlier with a greater degree of reaction.